MLB betting tips for Sunday: Luck turns around for Jackson Merrill, Ryne Nelson?

Derek CartyApr 19, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Today’s top batter prop bets

Jackson Merrill | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.40 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of his home runs, Merrill has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 20.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than my projections version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.6.

Joc Pederson | OVER 0.5 RBI (+273)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.67 EV
One reason to bet this: Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% – 93rd percentile) and sets up very well, considering hell be hitting them towards the leagues fourth-shallowest RF fences today.

Kyle Stowers | UNDER 0.5 H (+127)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Among every team playing today, the fourth-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Today’s top pitcher prop bets

Ryne Nelson | OVER 4.5 K (+126)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering the 0.45 disparity between Nelson’s 7.79 K/9 and his 8.24 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it’s safe to say he has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and figures to positively regress in the future.

Trevor Rogers | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.17 EV
One reason to bet this: The Cleveland Guardians (20.2 K% (per my projections) project to have the fourth-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate today.

Eury Perez | UNDER 5.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Given that groundball hitters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Perez and his 43.3% underlying GB% (via my projections) finds himself in a troublesome position in today’s game matching up with seven opposing GB batters.

The BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Cole Ragans

+129

43.9

0.42

+1.0

-119

-0.95

8.0

O -108

8.39

-7.31

Ryan Weathers

-156

56.2

-7.86

-1.0

-109

-11.45

U -112

-1.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shane McClanahan

-105

49.6

-2.63

-1.0

+119

-6.01

8.0

O -102

8.72

0.82

Mitch Keller

-115

50.4

-6.28

+1.0

-156

-6.33

U -118

-9.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Framber Valdez

+119

44.4

-2.15

+1.0

-139

-4.28

7.0

O -112

7.39

-4.35

Garrett Crochet

-143

55.6

-5.99

-1.0

+107

-8.24

U -108

-4.72

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robbie Ray

-156

55.6

-7.71

-1.0

-125

-11.01

8.5

O -102

8.48

-11.97

Miles Mikolas

+129

44.4

0.21

+1.0

-104

-0.82

U -118

2.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trevor Rogers

-102

45.6

-9.08

+1.0

-167

-8.93

6.5

O -122

7.50

4.67

Joey Cantillo

-118

54.4

-0.07

-1.0

+128

-1.87

U +102

-14.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob Misiorowski

-122

52.7

-3.23

-1.0

+105

-5.02

7.5

O -115

8.68

2.04

Eury Perez

+102

47.3

-5.42

+1.0

-136

-6.87

U -105

-11.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brady Singer

+104

48.5

-0.59

+1.0

-153

-2.24

8.0

O -110

8.65

-4.01

Bailey Ober

-126

51.5

-8.04

-1.0

+117

-11.29

U -110

-5.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Matthew Liberatore

+123

46.6

4.12

+1.0

-120

3.69

8.5

O -115

8.96

-9.44

Michael Burrows

-149

53.4

-10.91

-1.0

-108

-16.34

U -105

0.66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Peterson

+113

49.5

6.59

+1.0

-140

5.17

8.0

O -108

7.73

-18.51

Javier Assad

-136

50.5

-13.30

-1.0

+108

-19.61

U -112

9.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Roki Sasaki

-293

75.6

1.60

-3.0

-122

11.5

O -115

13.75

15.20

Michael Lorenzen

+234

24.4

-19.01

+3.0

-106

U -105

-25.07

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Noah Schultz

+129

46.5

6.30

+1.0

-114

5.09

9.5

O -105

9.28

-20.23

Jeffrey Springs

-156

53.5

-12.07

-1.0

-114

-17.37

U -115

10.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michael King

-118

49.3

-9.14

-1.0

+108

-11.02

8.5

O -112

9.71

3.41

Reid Detmers

-102

50.8

0.64

+1.0

-140

-1.91

U -108

-12.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MacKenzie Gore

+123

50.6

13.82

+1.0

-130

9.32

7.0

O -110

8.48

14.35

Bryan Woo

-149

49.4

-18.18

-1.0

+100

-23.58

U -110

-23.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kevin Gausman

-112

47.6

-9.71

-1.0

+117

-11.81

8.0

O -108

8.63

-3.45

Ryne Nelson

-108

52.4

0.73

+1.0

-152

-1.59

U -112

-5.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grant Holmes

+100

46.5

-6.98

+1.0

-156

-7.56

8.0

O -113

9.00

0.56

Andrew Painter

-120

53.5

-1.94

-1.0

+120

-3.93

U -107

-9.75

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

St. Louis Cardinals Team Total Over:
The Cardinals have gone over the team total in seven straight road games. (+7.25 Units / 91% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125

Atlanta Braves Run Line:
This bet has hit in 17 of the Braves’ last 20 away games. (+16.00 Units / 63% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -156

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline:
The Dodgers’ money-line bets have hit in 17 of their last 20 road games. (+11.55 Units / 35% ROI). Current odds: -293

Athletics Game Total Over:
Nine of the last 10 home games for the A’s have gone over. (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -105

Boston Red Sox Game Total Under:
Eleven of the Boston’s last 15 home games have gone under. (+7.75 Units / 48% ROI). Current odds: 7 @ -108