“I think there are two core dynamics at play. There are the market conditions, core data points that we would look at from a real estate perspective, but [also] the Trump effect. What’s he going to do next? And if we get to the other side of a positive resolution in the Iran conflict, I’d be surprised if anyone felt like something else wasn’t going to pop up.”
Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) downgraded its forecast for 2026 national home sales, citing “global economic uncertainty” as part of the reason for that change.
A jump in fixed mortgage rates because of inflation also caused the revision, according to CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart.
Fox expects the Trump effect to continue exerting a powerful influence over the Canadian housing market for the foreseeable future.
“To me, the biggest argument that you could make that the market isn’t going to rebound is that the decisions that he’s made have shown to have such an impact on the real estate market here,” he said. “And it’s hard to imagine he’s not going to keep down that path, even though we don’t necessarily know what he’s going to do next.”