The WTA Madrid Open is the third two-week 1,000-point tournament of the tennis season. It’s the first one on clay, as the run-up to the French Open begins to gain more momentum and the tournaments grow in importance. There are 96 players in the main draw, which means many qualifying-round matches are being played. Players in the top 50 know they will qualify for every 1,000-point tournament and every major. It’s the players on the margins to whom these qualifying matches are very important to the flow of their season and their chances to improve both their rankings and paychecks. There are plenty of Tuesday qualifying matches in Madrid. Let’s look at some of them.  

WTA Madrid
Parks – Efremova: Time 9:30 EST

H2H: 0-0

Alycia Parks takes on Ksenia Efremova. Parks was on her game in a blowout of Elina Avanesyan in the first round of Madrid qualifying. That match was priced very evenly, with a Parks win cashing at 1.92 in some books. Ksenia Efremova is ranked several hundred spots lower than Parks, but if that detail seems important, Efremova’s performance against Lulu Sun – ranked near Parks, also several hundred spots above Efremova – is a warning shot. Efremova beat Sun in straight sets, so her ranking of No. 670 might be deceiving.

Best Bet to Make

Efremova played really well against Sun, and that should not be ignored. However, Parks looked very solid against Avanesyan. Parks is the higher-ranked player, and so if both players are coming off good matches, there’s no real reason to distrust the higher-ranked player who is in good form. Parks should be able to win this match in a straightforward way. The odds, while not spectacular, are reasonable and worth the bet.

That being said, Parks -1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Parks -1.5 sets @1.83 @1xbet and @bet-at-home 

Potapova – Kraus: Time 9:30 EST

H2H: 0-0

Anastasia Potapova is playing quality tennis right now. She made the Linz final and gave top seed Mirra Andreeva a very tough match before ultimately falling short. Potapova came to Madrid and won a straight-set match against Teodora Kostovic. She is an in-form player who looks comfortable on clay. Sinja Kraus beat Martina Trevisan of Italy in her first round of Madrid qualifying. Trevisan is a clay-court specialist, but she was not on top of her game. Kraus was able to defeat her decisively. Both players have to feel good about their form heading into this match.

Best Bet to Make

Potapova over Kostovic in straight sets was a winning bet for us, so we are not going to abandon that bet. When you have a winning bet or formula and a specific player keeps delivering, it’s foolish to go away from that betting plan unless the caliber of the opponent or the circumstances surrounding the match are noticeably different. Kraus played well against Trevisan, but Trevisan is not playing well right now and isn’t nearly as good as Potapova. The choice should be clear.

That being said, Potapova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Potapova winning 2:0 @1.82 @1xbet

Galfi – Vidmanova: Time 9:30

H2H: 0-1

It’s a duel between Dalma and Darja, as Dalma Galfi faces Darja Vidmanova. Their only head-to-head meeting was earlier this year on clay. Vidmanova won in three sets. Yet, Galfi is priced by the books as the favorite. The two players are separated by only three spots in the world rankings (114 for Vidmanova, 117 for Galfi). Both players have lost five of their last seven matches but won their first-round Madrid qualifying matches.

Best Bet to Make

This match should be close. The players are ranked near each other. Their recent trends of results are the same. However, Vidmanova beat Galfi on clay not that long ago. With Galfi being priced as the favorite, it seems obvious that Vidmanova should be the play. The price for Vidmanova +1.5 sets isn’t great, though, so a game spread bet is the best possible selection based on what the books are offering. 

That being said, Vidmanova +3.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Vidmanova +3.5 games @1.80 @WilliamHill

Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports