Day 1 at the ATP 1000 in Miadrid signals the beginning of what is set to be yet another exciting chapter in this year’s European clay swing. Unfortunately for the local fans and viewers worldwide, the tournament has been hit by multiple high-profile withdrawals, none more impactful than Carlos Alcaraz having to miss the event for the second year in a row. But despite that, we can still expect the passionate crowd in full voice, as we predict every encounter for you as always. But who do you think will make it to the next round?
ATP Madrid Day 1 Predictions
Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva
Head-to-head: First meeting
This matchup will likely come down to the battle between Zhang Zhizhen’s aggression and Vit Kopriva’s baseline control. From the back of the court, Kopriva should have the edge in consistency and movement, but Zhang’s heavier firepower, particularly on serve and forehand, is well-suited to the high-altitude clay conditions. The Chinese player has previously made a deep run to the quarterfinals in Madrid, and if he finds the right balance between aggression and control, he should come through this match.
Prediction: Zhang in 3
Ignacio Buse vs Adrian Mannarino
Head-to-head: First meeting
This matchup presents a stark contrast in styles and spin, with Adrian Mannarino’s flat, first-strike tennis going up against Ignacio Buse’s traditional clay, spin-heavy baseline game. On clay, Buse should have a clear advantage, and if he replicates the level he has shown earlier in the season on this surface, he should have more than enough to overcome an opponent whose game is not suited to clay.
Prediction: Buse in 2
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Sebastian Ofner
Head-to-head: Ofner 1-0 Basilashvili
Both players are still searching for their first ATP Tour win of 2026, setting up an aggressive battle from the baseline. Nikoloz Basilashvili came through qualifying with a series of tight matches and will continue to rely on his high-risk attacking style. Sebastian Ofner, while also aggressive, offers slightly better defensive skills and counterpunching ability. If he can take control with his forehand when opportunities arise, he should secure his first win of the season.
Prediction: Ofner in 2
Alexandre Muller vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Head-to-head: Muller 1-0 Struff
Both players are comfortable on this surface but bring distinct game plans into the match. Alexandre Muller will look to extend rallies, counterpunch, and capitalize on opportunities, while Jan-Lennard Struff will aim to dictate with his big serve, heavy forehand, and strong net play. Struff has enjoyed success in Madrid before, notably coming close to winning the title in 2023. While his overall form has dipped since then, these conditions could allow him to rediscover that level.
Prediction: Struff in 3
Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports