The war in the Middle East has changed, but not its grip on Canadian interest rates. What began as a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran has evolved into a naval blockade, met by Tehran’s countermove of interdicting tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The guns have largely gone silent. The “energy surcharge” on savings and GIC rates has not.

Bond yields pulled back from their late-March highs as peace-deal hopes surfaced, but Iran continues to seize vessels. Markets have settled into a new consensus: that the Bank of Canada will soon begin a modest hiking cycle. Forward contracts on CORRA as of April 21 price in a 2.5-per-cent policy rate by December, 2026, with 2.75 per cent now a 2027 story.

Rates Update: Rise in longer duration GIC rates

The most notable shift is at the longer end of the GIC curve. Short-term savings rates remain little changed from one or even two months ago, but savers with a three- to five-year horizon now can receive slightly higher rates compared with two months ago.

Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce offer the highest promotional savings rate of 4.6 per cent for three months after the account opening. Saven and Oaken offer the highest savings rates of 2.85 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.

The highest three-year GIC now sits at 3.80 per cent (Saven Financial) and the five-year GIC at 4.0 per cent (MCAN, Oaken, Saven tied). Institutions are competing aggressively for longer deposits, a signal that they expect funding costs to rise.

The highest one-year GIC rate is 3.65 per cent and is offered by WealthONE and the highest two-year GIC rate of 3.8 per cent is offered by Achieva.

The ‘savings arbitrage’

The lowest mortgage rates on offer now range from 3.3 per cent to 3.4 per cent, depending on your province. That means the window where top promotional savings rates outpace variable mortgage costs remains open. This arbitrage depends on promotional rates, tax treatment, and risk tolerance.

Note that this comparison applies strictly to insured deposits and default insured mortgages. It would never hold for higher-risk private mortgages like those offered by Mortgage Investment Corporations (MICs), which carry significantly higher rates precisely because they take on credit risk that deposit insurance does not cover.

The blockade economy

A naval blockade produces a slow, sustained inflation tax – harder to dismiss as transitory than an acute military shock. Iran cannot win a conventional fight against U.S. and Israeli air power, but it can impose asymmetric costs through Hormuz for a long time.

As long as traffic is constrained through Hormuz, oil prices stay elevated, inflation persists, and the BoC’s path back to stability remains complicated. For Canadian savers, the message is simple: The rate environment will not return to its prewar baseline until well after the Strait reopens – restarting shut-in oil wells and repairing damaged infrastructure takes time even after security is re-established.

Interest rates are provided by WOWA.ca, which gathers, aggregates and freely disseminates data on mortgage rates, savings accounts and GIC rates from 50+ Canadian financial institutions.

Ali Nassimi, is a writer/content developer at WOWA.ca, a Canadian personal finance platform.