People walk near the Air Canada check-in area inside Terminal 1 of Toronto Pearson International Airport, in Mississauga, Ont., on Aug. 13, 2025.Arlyn McAdorey/The Canadian Press
They keep saying AI will take our jobs. As a mom who premade dinner, attended a parent-teacher conference, bought a gift for yet another birthday party, arranged play dates, signed up for weekend activities while also managing a business, attended three virtual meetings and wrote this column in the same day, I just have one question: “When?”
Here are five things to know this week:
Rate expectations: The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce their interest-rate decisions on Wednesday and neither are expected to make changes. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has already tipped his hand that he is content to see how the war in Iran plays out before getting trigger-happy on rate hikes, especially with the potential downside risks coming from the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. “With trade uncertainty still dragging heavily on Canada’s economy, we continue to believe that the best course of action for the bank is zero action,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter wrote.
The Federal Reserve is almost certainly going to keep rates unchanged, but that is less interesting than other dynamics right now. On Friday, the Department of Justice dropped its probe into the Fed’s spending, clearing the way for U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick, Kevin Warsh, to become the next Fed chair. If he is confirmed in the next few weeks, this could be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair. However, he has the option to remain on the board until 2028, which would be an unusual move. But these are unusual times and Mr. Powell has been vocal about perceived political interference with the Fed, so he may just opt to stick around. Once the drama of this is over, investors will need to think about the next rate move. Despite Mr. Trump’s preference for lower rates, the market barely has any priced in this year because of inflation shock stemming from the war in Iran.
The US$15.4-trillion question: Five of the seven so-called Magnificent Seven stocks are set to report this week, including Microsoft Corp. MSFT-Q, Meta Platforms Inc. META-Q, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN-Q and Alphabet Inc. GOOGL-Q, all of whom will have results out on Wednesday, and Apple Inc.’s AAPL-Q are out on Thursday. Each has its own nuanced story, but as a group they have underperformed the market in 2026. The companies been spending hundreds of billions on artificial intelligence and investors will watch whether their existing businesses are producing enough cash flow to finance their AI ambitions. We may have signs that isn’t the case, with Microsoft and Meta both announcing work-force reductions last week totalling up to 23,000 jobs. The exception, of course, is Apple, which has been reducing capital spending. The results will give investors a chance to hear from Tim Cook about his pending transition from chief executive officer to chair and perhaps hear more from incoming CEO John Ternus.
Balancing act: Air Canada AC-T reports Thursday and the Street is divided about whether the stock can be a winner. Fifty per cent of analysts are a buy and 50 per cent are at a hold. Higher jet-fuel prices are a wild card. On one hand, they are driving up costs. On the other hand, Air Canada has been passing those increases on to consumers. In fact, March airline prices increased year-over-year for the first time in two years, according to data from Statistics Canada. “Higher airfares typically lead to some demand destruction,” wrote National Bank analyst Cameron Doerksen, who is in the neutral camp. The stock has been perilously range-bound, so this quarter could decide the next move.
Fog of war: Energy companies Chevron Corp. CVX-N, Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM-N and Imperial Oil Ltd. IMO-T will report, giving investors a window into how they are navigating disruptions in the energy sector and insight into how long they expect them to persist. As integrated producers, the benefit of higher oil prices may be undercut by supply disruptions. Earlier in the month, Exxon warned that 20 per cent of its production in the Middle East was shut down for one month. Exxon profit estimates fell after the warning. In theory, Chevron should be in a better position because it has less exposure to the Middle East, but production issues in Kazakhstan and Australia are conspiring against the company. Imperial Oil will give us the first indication of how much Canadian producers are benefiting from higher energy prices. “Under our recut 2026 WTI outlook of US$84 and higher downstream margins, we estimate that Canada’s majors – Canadian Natural Resources CNQ-T, Suncor Energy SU-T, Cenovus Energy CVE-T and Imperial Oil – would see their 2026 year/year cash flows rise 45 per cent to $61.3-billion, with free cash flows rising 75 per cent to $42.2-billion and current taxes rising 134 per cent to $13.5-billion,” Royal Bank of Canada analyst Greg Pardy wrote.
One man’s trash: GFL Environmental Inc. GFL-T will be a stock to watch this week, reporting results Wednesday after the close. The waste-management company has been in the news frequently – but not because of anything to do with its operations. Rather, there have been a series of attacks on company executives’ property, including CEO Patrick Dovigi. But that’s not what investors have on their minds. GFL shares have been under pressure ever since it announced the acquisition of Secure Energy Services in a $6.5-billion deal that seems to have detractors on both sides. For GFL, investors are worried about the increase in leverage and that buying an energy waste company dilutes its appeal as a pure-play solid-waste company. “With the acquisition of the SES business, the company is expanding outside the Solid Waste space to assets that are viewed as more cyclical,” Stifel managing director of business services Shlomo Rosenbaum wrote in a note to clients, saying the stock will now likely trade at a discount. Meanwhile, a top holder in Secure Energy Services says they plan to vote against the deal preferring that it remain a stand-alone company. The conference call should be interesting.
In the Money with Amber Kanwar is Canada’s top investing podcast. New episodes out Tuesday and Thursday. Subscribe now! www.inthemoneypod.com