How the NHL Draft lottery could play out for the Maple Leafs

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The Maple Leafs hold the No. 5 pick in the 2026 NHL draft, but that could change via the draft lottery on Tuesday night.

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Published May 01, 2026 • Last updated 8 hours ago • 6 minute read

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NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly reveals the Toronto Maple Leafs during the NHL Draft Lottery in 2012. Toronto Sun filesArticle content

One draft lottery, three Maple Leafs scenarios.

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That’s what it will boil down to on Tuesday night when the National Hockey League holds its annual awkwardly suspenseful live drawing of the lottery balls.

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Each potential outcome for the Leafs, who currently own the fifth pick in the 2026 draft thanks to a 2025-26 season of woeful underachievement, will have a distinct bearing on the team’s future when the balls drop at the NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, NJ.

Move up to select first or second and the Leafs will have a choice of two wingers who have set themselves apart in his draft class — Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg.

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Either would slot in nicely alongside captain Auston Matthews. Franchise winger? You could say that. One way or another, the new front office — reportedly to be led by Mats Sundin up top and John Chayka as general manager — would be handed a heck of a start.

Stay at No. 5 and a fine defenceman, perhaps one of Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels or Alberts Smits, will be among the potential choices. Each one is destined to be a top-pairing D-man in the NHL. And, if not, centre Caleb Malhotra would not be far off from providing strength down the middle.

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Fall out of the top five and it’s more misery for Leafs Nation and a larger stain on the resume of former Leafs GM Brad Treliving.

Not only does Boston already have centre Fraser Minten in the one-sided trade that sent defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto last year, the Bruins would get a shot at one of the players listed above with the sixth or seventh pick.

There’s a good chance that the player picked by the Bruins, along with Minten, would be a pillar for the team for years.

A closer look at the scenarios:

MOVIN’ ON UP

Plan the parade.

Take it easy, we’re kidding.

There’s no doubt, however, that the Leafs will get a significant boost if they move into the first or second spot in the draft order.

In basic terms, the Leafs will have an 8.5% chance to win the lottery and pick first, and an 8.6% chance to get the second selection.

Either would be represent a terrific cap on a bad season in Toronto. The Leafs have picked first overall twice — in 2016 when they got Matthews and in 1985 when they chose Wendel Clark.

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Matthews has the franchise record for goals and is the face of the organization; Clark remains one of, if not the most, popular player in team history after playing in 608 games during three stints in Toronto.

One of McKenna or Stenberg would provide an instant shot of optimism, an element that badly needs to be restored. If you’re in the group that thinks this past year was a one-off for the Leafs and they will return to the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2027, that belief adds a lot more weight with a first or second pick overall.

A wrinkle in the Leafs’ history would be ironed out if they move up to the second pick. The amateur draft first was held in 1963 and the Leafs, strangely enough, have never picked second overall.

There’s a tiny chance, 0.3%, that the Leafs get the third pick. The Leafs can’t move into the fourth pick under any circumstances.

STAY AT FIVE

As we mentioned, there will be a deep group of defencemen from which the Leafs could choose. Reid and Verhoeff shoot right, as does another top-rated defenceman, Daxon Rudolph, while Carels and Smits are left-handed shots.

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As intriguing as Malhotra might be, the Leafs’ biggest need is on the blue line. They could go a long way to fixing that with this pick, which they have a 24.5% chance of maintaining.

What we think we can safely declare is that the Leafs, unless they go way off the board and are proven wrong in the future, would get a good player at No. 5, one that makes an impact eventually.

We looked at the No. 5 picks since 2000 and, for the most part, it’s a group that has been sharp.

Six players chosen fifth in that span — Thomas Vanek, Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn, Brayden Schenn and Nino Niederreiter — went on to play more than 1,000 NHL games. Others including Ryan Strome, Morgan Rielly, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin are within shooting distance of that milestone.

Also among those taken fifth: Carey Price, Karl Alzner, Elias Pettersson, Jake Sanderson, Cutter Gauthier and Ivan Demidov.

It’s just a small group of players selected fifth in the past 26 years that didn’t pan out, including Stanislav Chistov, Michael Del Colle and Olli Juolevi.

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If the Leafs maintain the fifth-overall pick, it will be the fourth time in franchise history that the club has had that selection.

Rielly was the most recent in 2012 with Brian Burke, the Leafs’ GM at the time, later infamously saying he would have taken the defenceman first overall. Fourteen years later, Rielly is seventh on the franchise list in games played with 951 and, from the 2012 draft class, only defenceman Cody Ceci (953) has played in more games than him.

Rielly is fourth in points from that draft year with 549, behind forwards Filip Forsberg (756), Tomas Hertl (607) and Teuvo Teravainen (552).

Schenn was the fifth pick overall by the Leafs in 2008. His long and steady NHL career, which includes two Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, is winding down with the Buffalo Sabres.

And way back in 1964, in the second NHL amateur draft, the Leafs chose forward Tom Martin at No. 5. The Toronto native played in just three games with the Leafs, but went on to have three productive seasons in the WHA, including two with the Toronto Toros.

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FALL OUT OF TOP FIVE

The nightmare situation.

The Bruins, an Atlantic Division rival, get stronger courtesy of a team they’ve had fun beating up on in the playoffs during the Matthews era.

There’s a 44% chance the Leafs fall to sixth and a 14.2% chance they fall to seventh. In either case, hello Beantown.

The idea that the Leafs wouldn’t have their 2026 first-round pick seemed to be a lot more palatable when the season began.

John Chayka’s trade history in Arizona didn’t feature wise blockbusters

Mats Sundin, John Chayka in Maple Leafs’ sights to run front office: Report

Even with the departure of Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights, the general expectation was that the Leafs, at worst, would be a wild-card team in the Eastern Conference. Lose the first-round pick to Boston? Tough one to swallow, but it was more or less accepted.

Then the Leafs started to lose — about the only thing they did with consistency from start to finish — and the top-five pick not only was back in play, it was secured late in the season.

With the asterisk that applies to Tuesday night.

The lone silver lining is that the pick wouldn’t slide, which would then put some draft dominoes into effect, as the Leafs traded their 2027 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers in the Scott Laughton trade.

If the Leafs keep the pick this year, they won’t have their own first-round pick in 2027 or 2028. Treliving managed recoup an asset when he acquired a 2027 first-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche for Nicolas Roy. That pick is top-10 protected and would slide to 2028 for the Leafs.

tkoshan@postmedia.com

X: @koshtorontosun

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