First Reading is a Canadian politics newsletter curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.

TOP STORY

As Ottawa announces plans to track how many migrants are leaving the country, the move has highlighted the fact that the Carney government still has no clear picture of how much of Canada’s record-breaking post-COVID migration surge is still here.

Before a House of Commons committee on Monday, when Immigration Minister Lena Diab was asked why Canada doesn’t monitor whether foreigners are leaving as requested, she responded that she had “wondered the same thing.”

“That’s a good question. I wondered the same thing, but that’s how Canada has been throughout its history,” Diab said in response to a question from Conservative MP Costas Menegakis.

She added, “I agree with you. We should have it, and we are working towards it. That is the good news.”

In the meantime, Ottawa is set to approve another 210,700 foreign work permits this year, even as the number of temporary migrants now living illegally in the country could be in the hundreds of thousands.

Statistics Canada’s official figures show that the number of non-permanent residents in the country currently stands at about 2.7 million. However, as outlined by the statistics agency, this figure largely derives from data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on permitted migrants, and can only make estimates on how many unpermitted migrants have left.

In a 2024 briefing note, the IRCC wrote that the number of “undocumented migrants” living in Canada “could be as high as 500,000 persons.”

“Why are you letting in so many temporary foreign labourers when you don’t have a way to track people whose permits might have expired. Like, why are you doing that?” Michelle Rempel Garner, the Conservatives’ immigration critic, asked Diab on Monday.

The minister replied, “I’ve travelled across the country; businesses, communities in all parts of the country are needing foreign workers.”

Between 2022 and 2024, the Liberal government admitted a record number of “non-permanent residents”; a category encompassing everyone from asylum seekers to international students to temporary foreign workers.

In the peak year of 2023, for instance, immigration officials approved an unprecedented 684,000 study permits and 240,000 new slots for temporary foreign workers. And this was all in addition to that year’s historically high rate of asylum claimants, which averaged about 400 per day.

All told, in just the three years between 2021 and 2024, Statistics Canada figures show that the country’s non-permanent residents grew from 1.4 million to 3 million — the equivalent of adding the entire population of Manitoba.

The Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney have touted sharp reductions in the number of new visas being handed out. The Government of Canada’s official webpage on immigration levels, for instance, notes that the 155,000 new foreign students entering Canada this year are “49 per cent fewer than last year’s target.”

But as was a theme in Monday’s committee hearing, it’s not known how many of the previous migrants are actually leaving when asked, be it a rejected asylum claimant or a temporary foreign worker with expired permits.

The hearing was dominated by discussions of a March auditor general’s report finding that Canada had failed to investigate more than 100,000 cases of potentially fraudulent student visas.

Specifically, the report found that between 2023 and 2024, 153,000 international students had been flagged as being non-compliant with the terms of their visa.

Immigration officials only had funding to investigate 4,000 of those, and many of those investigations failed simply because the foreign student refused to answer emails or phone calls. “About 41 per cent of these cases could not be closed because of a lack of response from students,” it read.

The report also found that the department did nothing about 800 cases of students discovered to have entered Canada using fraudulent documentation.

Diab could not answer how many of the 153,000 potentially non-compliant students were still in Canada, aside from the 14 per cent of them that had subsequently applied for refugee status.

But she did seem to say that the 800 known fraud cases were still in the country. Said Diab, “the 800 cases are in Canada.”

First Reading is a Canadian politics newsletter curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.