Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley will go to war this weekend (Sat., May 9, 2026) inside Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., for UFC 328.
In this fascinating matchup of highly-ranked contenders looking to rebound, each man must face his respective fear. Brady’s win streak was ended by the physicality and raw power of Michael Morales (see it here), two traits that Buckley could also rank as his best assets. Simultaneously, Buckley’s Welterweight rise was interrupted by the smothering wrestling and top control of Kamaru Usman, and Brady is undoubtedly one of the top grinders in the division. The path is there for either man to dominate the other, so it really comes down to who learned the right lessons from their last defeat.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
TAMPA, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 14: (L-R) Joaquin Buckley and Colby Covington trade punches in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Amalie Arena on December 14, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Brady vs. Buckley Betting Odds
Sean Brady victory: -180Sean Brady via TKO/KO/DQ: +800Sean Brady via submission: +350Sean Brady via decision: +190Joaquin Buckley victory: +140Joaquin Buckley via TKO/KO/DQ: +250Joaquin Buckley via submission: +2500Joaquin Buckley via decision: +550Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 07: (L-R) Sean Brady punches Gilbert Burns of Brazil in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 07, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
An accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Brady has excellent takedowns for a fighter with no collegiate wrestling background. He chains his shots very well, and once on top, Brady is incredibly difficult to shake. On the feet, Brady has quick hands and a nice left hook, but he’s shown repeated difficult with opponents willing to walk through his shots and hit him harder.
Brady has to get a little more aggressive here. He can’t start on his back foot, allow Buckley to take the center, and then hope to time the perfect reactive double on an opponent with seriously strong hips. That’s a recipe for getting knocked out again, even if in the cage it may feel safer to feel his way into the fight versus a big hitter like “New Mansa.”
Waiting around offers no benefits for Brady. Instead, he has to come out of the gate aggressive, feint takedown attempts, and throw real punches at Buckley. There’s always danger in exchanging, of course, but Buckley will at least be forced to respect the takedown threat if Brady is coming forward. That’s an opening for the grappler, and landing a couple hard punches will definitely improve his shots of actually completing the takedown.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – JUNE 14: (R-L) Joaquin Buckley kicks Kamaru Usman of Nigeria in a welterweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at State Farm Arena on June 14, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Buckley is a powerhouse with some interesting tactics to his kickboxing. He’s always shifting side to side, searching for an angle from which to explode forward with a stance-shifting combinations. By mixing in body shots often, Buckley adds another layer of unpredictability to his offense. Sometimes, Buckley’s charges look like slick MMA boxing, and other times he’s just running at his opponents like a wild man.
Either way, he’s knocked out 15 of his opponents.
In the face of a strong wrestler, pressure is usually the best strategy. In the case of Buckley, he has to push the action while remaining settled in his stance. He cannot afford to sloppily run into an easy takedown or get a kick caught while doing some strange jumping side kick — Brady’s top game is too good for mistakes.
How about some jabs? Buckley has a four inch-reach advantage and should use it. If he takes the time to poke out the jab, body jab, and/or right hand to the body, he’ll give himself a range finder than can then be used to safely build combinations. Combine patience and pressure, and Buckley should be able to get Brady uncomfortable and create heavy connections.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – JUNE 14: Joaquin Buckley is introduced prior to facing Kamaru Usman of Nigeria in a welterweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at State Farm Arena on June 14, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Brady vs. Buckley Prediction
As mentioned in the intro, there are strong reasons to side with either man. If you watched Buckley get taken down repeatedly by 38-year-old Usman and, therefore, expect Brady to do the same, I definitely understand that line of reasoning.
I do not think, however, that it’s suddenly an easy task to grind down Buckley, otherwise Colby Covington would’ve found a bit more success. I think Buckley trusted too much in his physicality and learned a hard lesson from “The Nigerian Nightmare,” one he’s hopefully taken to heart. In addition, Buckley did show a lot of heart and grit in the Usman loss. Even if taken down early here, there’s a real chance Buckley is able to work back into the fight late.
Conversely, I don’t see Brady surviving a clean Buckley shot regardless of willpower.
Prediction: Buckley via knockout
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