“A lot of economists were predicting that the second half of the year would be a little bit better, in particular with the detached market,” Green said. “A lot of new construction for detached has fallen off a cliff as of about 12 months ago.
“So there’s less new product getting completed now, and eventually the surplus supply of detached will get eaten up and then eventually should balance out the market.”
That view finds some support in Vancouver’s April data, released last week. Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) reported that detached home sales rose 14% year over year to 659 transactions, a notable bright spot in an otherwise subdued market where overall residential sales fell 2.5% annually and remained 22.9% below the 10-year seasonal average.
GVR chief economist Andrew Lis noted that detached sales had been consistently gaining on a year-over-year basis even as the multi-family segment softened, and raised the possibility that the segment could act as a bellwether for broader market sentiment.
Green was cautiously optimistic about detached and townhomes heading into the second half, though he stopped short of forecasting a recovery. “I think it’ll be less concerning and the values will flatten out in the second half for detached or perhaps even townhomes – or at least will be decreasing at a slower rate,” he said.