The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. conversation again. Where is the power and dominance?

TORONTO — It’s a frustratingly familiar conversation. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., through the first six weeks of the season, has people scratching their heads.

The hits have arrived. The walks are plenty. But the first baseman’s power and his lineup-carrying dominance haven’t yet appeared. Guerrero, through 42 games, is on pace for just eight home runs. His slugging percentage, .377, would be the lowest of his career. In his past 15 games, Guerrero is hitting .204.

Toronto’s early struggles don’t fall squarely on Guerrero. The lineup and rotation are filled with injuries. Slumps from other players far outweigh the first baseman’s. He has still been a well-above-average hitter, but he can be so much more. Guerrero, with bat flips and loud lashes last October, has seemingly been impossible to retire on baseball’s biggest stage. He’s not that guy right now.

“When you have the postseason you have, I think it’s natural that that’s the expectation, right?” manager John Schneider said. “You’re going to hit homers, do whatever you did.”

Ebbs and flows happen for every player. But Guerrero’s inconsistent slug sparks the same conversation each spring. Where is the power? When will the dominance appear? Essentially, every other season of his MLB career, peak Guerrero has eventually arrived. But this year, amid Toronto’s injury-riddled slow start, it’s unclear if the Jays can afford to wait.

Guerrero’s worst month last year by OPS (March/April) was the Blue Jays’ worst month by record. His best month (July) was also Toronto’s best. In fact, the Jays’ best month in each of the past three seasons aligns with Guerrero’s peak. That’s why he hits third. That’s why he got the $500 million contract. That’s why his success is so directly tied to the team’s. Right now, neither the Jays nor Guerrero is at their best.

“Everyone, right now, relies on him a little bit more,” Schneider said. “I think he understands that.”

Mechanically, Schneider said, the issue is that Guerrero’s swing is “just a tick off.” His timing, his first step and his swing are slightly out of whack. Hitting coach David Popkins said he thought Guerrero was about to heat up when the first baseman notched nine hits, including two doubles, over April’s final five games. Then, Popkins said, Guerrero hit a rut. That’s where the real issue arrives.

Currently, Guerrero is trying to do too much, Schneider said. It’s a weird balance. The Jays need him to be great, but the search for greatness appears to be sending the first baseman in the wrong direction. In the past seven games, Guerrero has just two hits.

Guerrero’s confidence and ball-crushing ability are linked, Popkins said. When the hits fall, Guerrero plays loose. When he’s loose, his mechanics reach a “flow state,” Popkins said. Guerrero’s searching for it, perhaps one swing away from a course correction. But the search takes a toll.

“When there’s a narrative and things start to roll, he feels it, right?” Popkins said. “Then all of a sudden, he’s trying to feel his body, those positions and get to that power. So things become a little more unnatural.”

After Guerrero grounded out to shortstop in the eighth inning of Monday’s game against the Rays, a lone fan in left field began to boo. In his first at-bat Tuesday, the first baseman’s at-bat lasted mere seconds. He aggressively lashed at three pitches and connected with none of them.

“I think he’s at the point where he wants to be the guy to carry us,” Schneider said. “The more he does that, the harder it gets.”

Guerrero did come through in Tuesday’s seventh inning, sending a bouncing groundball to the left side of the infield that hit off Junior Caminero’s glove. The crowd, chanting Guerrero’s name over and over, celebrated the tying grounder in an eventual 7-6 extra-inning loss. He was, for an inning, the hero. It’s a role he filled so often last year. But it still wasn’t the scorched line drive or mashed homer Guerrero delivers when he’s truly right.

The issue is that the Jays could really use a carrying force. Before Tuesday’s big seventh inning, the Jays scored more than five runs just once in the previous eight games. They sit 21st in runs scored and tied for 23rd in team OPS. The Jays (18-24) could really use a locked-in Guerrero, but the pressure to find that form, at least per his coaches, is only exacerbating the slugger’s struggle.

It is not as if Guerrero can’t handle pressure. He was the brightest light in a dominant Jays offence last fall. He regularly rises for big series at Yankee Stadium and has come through in the clutch. He had a dominant World Baseball Classic and looked so sharp early in spring training that Schneider made a prophetic observation: “Try to bottle that up a little bit. How can you be that force for 162 before you get into the postseason?”

Last year, through 42 games, Guerrero had an OPS floating around .800, four homers, many walks and plenty of groundballs. In 2024, through 42 games, he had an OPS hovering around .800, four homers, many walks and plenty of groundballs. This year, it’s basically the same thing.

Guerrero’s production almost always arrives by the end of the season. His OPS+, representing park-adjusted production, has been at least 30 percent better than league average in four of his last five seasons. But he’s not there right now. There’s a reason this conversation is frustratingly familiar.

“He’s a marathon runner,” Schneider said, “not a sprinter, I guess.”