As the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers partake in a dogfight series for the right to advance to the Eastern Conference finals, the New York Knicks are back at home with their feet kicked up and taking in the action like the rest of us.
New York handled its second-round business as quickly as possible, with a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers that was dominant enough for the record books. It was the Knicks’ first playoff sweep since 1999, which, coincidentally, is the last time the franchise appeared in the NBA Finals.
Detroit or Cleveland is the only thing separating New York from its long-awaited return to the sport’s pinnacle, and no matter which team ends up being victorious, the Knicks will be the favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
But which of the Pistons or Cavaliers is a more favorable opponent for New York? Though I believe the Knicks would win a series against either Detroit or Cleveland, the Cavaliers would present the path of least resistance.
Here’s why.
Regular-season performances mean very little this time of the year, but you can’t ignore how much the Pistons’ physicality bothered New York during the 82-game schedule. Detroit went a convincing 3-0 against the Knicks and, more importantly, held New York to just 90 points in a Jan. 5 meeting and 80 points in a Feb. 6 meeting. Those were the Knicks’ lowest scoring outputs of the entire year (both sides were missing one or two key players in those matchups). More than the physicality, though, the Pistons have had New York circled since the latter won a thrilling six-game playoff series last year. Detroit has a personal vendetta that the Cavaliers don’t outside of just trying to take down the Knicks for a chance to advance.
On the other side, New York went 2-1 against Cleveland during the regular season, but the Cavaliers won by 15 points in the only meeting between the two teams since James Harden was traded to the Midwest. On paper, Cleveland has more firepower to do damage in a half-court offensive setting against the Knicks as opposed to the Pistons, but it has nowhere near the defensive upside Detroit carries. The Cavaliers have a defensive rating that ranks last out of the remaining playoff teams, and the Pistons are sitting right behind the Knicks at No. 3. Detroit, at most, usually has just one below-average defender on the court at all times. The same can’t be said for Cleveland.
Though the Cavaliers offense is their bread-and-butter, it hasn’t exactly been unguardable during these playoffs. Yes, Donovan Mitchell has been incredible, but his performances have disguised some issues his team has been facing on that side of the floor. If Harden’s last name were, like, Johnson and he wasn’t Cleveland’s big midseason addition, his minutes would have been reduced by now. The future Hall of Famer is averaging 19.9 points on 43 percent shooting and coughing the ball up at an alarming rate (he’s averaging 4.7 turnovers per game). He still demands attention and can win a game in the clutch, as he did in a Game 3 victory over the Pistons, but Harden is having yet another rough postseason.
As a team, the Cavaliers can light it up from 3, but they have not done that in the playoffs. Cleveland ranks last of the remaining postseason teams in 3-point efficiency (yes, even behind Detroit, which isn’t known for its 3-point accuracy). New York’s defense, which is predicated on defending the paint, is most vulnerable at the 3-point line. The Pistons might not have the upside the Cavaliers do offensively, but they know who they are and don’t rely on high-volume 3-point attempts to get by. If Cleveland is going to continue to be a poor 3-point shooting team (legs don’t usually get fresher as a team advances), the Knicks defense is better equipped to handle isolation scorers like Cleveland’s than the randomness Detroit provides with its cutting, athleticism and transition play.
Furthermore, Pistons star Cade Cunningham provides a more difficult challenge for New York than either Harden or Mitchell. Let me explain. Not only is Cunningham’s playmaking and size something that has given the Knicks trouble all year, but he’s also found his shooting stroke this postseason, knocking down 40 percent of his 3s through 11 games. Now, Cunningham is turning the ball over (5.7 per game) at an even higher rate than Harden, and New York would clearly turn up the pressure to try to neutralize the All-NBA talent. However, Cunningham really has the advantage over Harden and Mitchell on the defensive end of the floor. Cunningham is a good defender. The Knicks can’t hunt Cunningham, but they can regularly hunt Harden and Mitchell, forcing both stars to work hard on that end and potentially impacting them offensively.
Another potential area where the Pistons would have an advantage over the Knicks is the team’s athleticism. New York just hasn’t seen a team with that quality yet in the postseason. Ausar Thompson is, arguably, the best perimeter defender in the NBA, and that isn’t a walk-in-the-park matchup this late in the season for Jalen Brunson despite his brilliance. The Cavaliers have no one even close to the level of Thompson on the perimeter who could give Brunson a hard time throughout a series. Additionally, though Jalen Duren has really struggled in the playoffs thus far, Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t matched up with a center this postseason who is as athletic and as elite a lob threat as Duren can be. The Cavaliers have two good big men in their starting lineup, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but history suggests Towns and Mitchell Robinson will have the edge in the physicality department over those two. Detroit can spell Duren with either Isaiah Stewart or Paul Reed, both of whom are equally as physical.
Lastly, the Pistons would have home-court advantage in a series against the Knicks, and Cleveland would not. Detroit is 5-1 at home this postseason. The Cavaliers have yet to win a road playoff game during these playoffs.
New York should beat either opponent in the Eastern Conference finals. The defense has been elite for quite some time, and the offense is as confident as it’s ever been over the last two years. I’d pick the Knicks to win in six or seven games over Detroit and five or six games over the Cavaliers. With that said, the Pistons would bring a level of physicality and mental fortitude the Knicks haven’t seen all postseason from an opponent. And though those things will better prepare New York for a potential finals showdown against the Oklahoma City Thunder, they also minimize the Knicks’ margin for error.
The Cavaliers look like the more dangerous opponent on paper, but the sport is played on hardwood. Basketball is about matchups, and we’ve seen for two seasons now that the Pistons match up better against the Knicks than most opponents in the NBA.