Quebec’s October election may be a three-way race, with a Léger/Québecor poll suggesting support is returning to the Coalition Avenir Québec under new premier Christine Fréchette.

The Parti Québécois leads in the survey released Wednesday, with 30 per cent of respondents saying they plan to vote for the party led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a decline of one percentage point from the last Léger poll, conducted in April.

Following closely behind is the Quebec Liberal Party, whose support is unchanged from the last poll at 28 per cent.

However, Charles Milliard’s Liberals are down from 33 per cent in an earlier April poll, when the party polled slightly ahead of the PQ.

But the CAQ is on the rise, with 22 per cent of respondents saying they plan to vote for the governing party, an increase of five percentage points from the month before.

It’s a sharp increase in support for the CAQ, which was tied for fourth place at nine per cent in a March 22 poll and hasn’t polled above 20 per cent in more than a year.

The increase comes after Fréchette took over as premier from François Legault on April 15. According to the poll, 47 per cent of respondents said they’re satisfied with the work of her government — though only four per cent said they’re “very satisfied.”

The rise in support for the CAQ appears to be coming, at least in part, at the expense of the Conservative Party of Quebec, whose support dropped three percentage points from April to May, to 11 per cent.

Support for Québec solidaire is unchanged at eight per cent.

Another 10 per cent of survey respondents said they’re still undecided.

Fréchette is also nipping at the heels of St-Pierre Plamondon when it comes to Quebecers’ preference for premier.

Asked who would make the best premier, 22 per cent of survey respondents said St-Pierre Plamondon, a decline of one percentage point from the month before, while 20 per cent said Fréchette, an increase of four percentage points.

Support for Milliard continues to lag support for his party, with only 15 per cent of survey respondents saying they think he’d make the best premier, a decline of two percentage points.

But the CAQ’s rise could be fragile, with 60 per cent of those who say they currently plan to vote for the party telling Léger the might change their mind, compared to 50 per cent for the Liberals and 42 per cent for the PQ.

The PQ continues to lead among francophones, with 37 per cent of francophone respondents telling the pollster they plan to vote for the sovereignist party, while the CAQ is in second place at 26 per cent.

The Liberal party is leading among non-francophones, at 59 per cent, according to the poll, but is third among francophones, with only 17 per cent saying they’d vote for the party.

The poll commissioned by Québecor Media was conducted May 15-18 among 1,027 Quebecers age 18 or over who have the right to vote.

Because the poll was conducted among members of an online panel, it cannot be assigned a true margin of error.

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