Canadian households continue to rack up an epic amount of debt. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows household debt continued to climb in March. The record debt rivals the country’s whole output, placing a drag on growth. However, that wasn’t the biggest concern in the latest update—the concentration is. Despite a slow real estate market, households continue to borrow for just one thing.
Canadian Household Debt Tops $3.24 Trillion
Households grew their debt pile by 0.2% (+$4.7 billion) to $3.24 trillion in March, up 4.4% (+$135.1 billion) from last year. The annual growth rate has decelerated to a 16-month low, but remains relatively lofty. No one has to worry, we’ll see plenty of new records set in the coming months.
The sheer volume of this debt is concerning. Households alone now owe the equivalent of the country’s annual economic output. It’s not even the entire amount owed, but just the amount owed to major institutional lenders. Add the remaining private and public debt, and we can see the country has borrowed years of future growth.
Surprisingly, that’s not the biggest risk. The bigger concern is the fact that one segment is consuming so much, there’s no room to borrow for anything else.
Canadian Mortgage Debt Outpaces Consumer Credit
First, let’s break this down. Household debt is composed of both consumer and mortgage loans. Consumer debt grew 0.1% (+$1.17 billion) to $814.26 billion in March, up 3.8% (+$29.7 billion) from last year. This is one of the rare segments that isn’t hitting all-time highs, an issue worth flagging for concern. Consumer debt is considered productive consumption—loans for discretionary consumption. Cars, renovations, etc…—growth in this segment is often a positive sentiment indicator. A slowdown here typically means concerns about repayment, either from consumers or lenders.
Then there’s mortgage credit, which advanced 0.2% (+$3.5 billion) to $2.42 trillion in March, up 4.6% (+$105.5 billion) from last year. This isn’t just a new record high, but some of you might have noticed that the annual growth rate exceeds that of the total. Household debt is increasingly concentrating in mortgage credit—again.
Canadian Household Debt Increasingly Concentrated In Mortgages
Canadian residential mortgage credit as a share of total household debt, percent.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Canadian household debt is increasingly just mortgage debt. Mortgage debt now represents 74.8% of the total in March, 0.1 points higher than last year. The share has grown 6.9 points over the past 10 years and 12.7 points over the past two decades. In other words, household debt grew 20% faster than consumer credit over the past 20 years.
Canada doesn’t just have a debt problem, its households have a mortgage problem. The country’s households owe an amount rivalling its GDP, and it’s increasingly tied to shelter. When debt is concentrated this heavily, it presents more than a drag on growth; it emphasizes preserving the distorted value of the assets securing that debt. Older generations get amplified exposure to a housing correction, while younger generations are destabilized until that correction arrives.
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