Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 21, 2026 , 10:52 AM ET
• 4 min read
Natasha Howard is picking up the slack for a thin Lynx frontcourt and scoring the most points in the paint in the WNBA. Tonight’s opponent, Toronto, just so happens to allow the most PITP and Jason Logan sees a ton of value in Howard’s scoring prop.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Minnesota Lynx forward Natasha Howard (1) shoots against Chicago Sky center Kamilla Cardoso (10) in the third quarter.
The Minnesota Lynx are rested and ready for the road-weary Toronto Tempo in their first ever meeting tonight.
Minnesota has been off since Sunday while Toronto continues a slog of away games, with this matchup being their fourth straight road outings in seven days.
Our Tempo vs. Lynx predictions see a sizable advantage for Natasha Howard inside and my WNBA picks call for Minnesota’s veteran center to go hard in the paint against a thin Toronto frontcourt.
Tempo vs Lynx prediction
Tempo vs Lynx best bet: Natasha Howard Over 15.5 points (-105)
The Minnesota Lynx are missing bigs Napheesa Collier, Dorka Juhasz, and Emma Cechova, leaving Natasha Howard to pick up the slack.
She’s done just that, especially in the past two games. Howard has attempted 24 collective FGAs for outputs of 17 and 26 points. She’s been dominant inside, leading the WNBA with 14.0 points in the paint.
The Toronto Tempo are missing Temi Fagbenle, Nyara Sabally, and Isabelle Harrison. That lack of size has Toronto getting bullied for a league-worst 46.4 PITP, including 52 PITP to Phoenix Tuesday.
Howard’s projections lean to 16 points. I see a much higher ceiling.
COVERS INTEL: Natasha Howard’s role in the offense is spiking since Emma Cechova’s knee injury. She’s 10th in FGAs over the past two games (14.5) and shooting 65% in those outings. Her usage shot up to 11th highest (28.9%) among qualified players with at least 100 minutes.
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Tempo vs Lynx same-game parlay
Toronto has won two of its last three outings but injuries and fatigue add up for the Tempo tonight. Toronto is missing plenty of key pieces and will get tossed around by a physical Lynx lineup.
Minnesota has enjoyed time off to rest and practice. And with Sandy Brondello coming to town, you know Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve will be ready.
Natasha Howard is getting a ton of touches with Collier, Cechova and Juhasz out. Her minutes and shot volume are spiking the past two games. At 6-foot-2, she’s battled bigger forwards and catches a break against the Tempo’s injury-shortened frontcourt. She’s tops in points in the paint, which just so happens to be Toronto’s biggest weakness.
Marina Mabrey was Toronto’s top choice in the expansion draft for a reason. She’s carried over her scoring touch from the Unrivaled season to the 2026 WNBA campaign, dropping 26, 27, and 30 points in three of her first five games.
Mabrey’s usage is fifth highest in the league among qualified players with at least 100 minutes and she’s shooting 20 FGAs a night when avoiding foul trouble.
Tempo vs Lynx SGP
Lynx Moneyline
Natasha Howard Over 15.5 points
Marina Maybrey Over 19.5 points
Tempo vs Lynx first basket scorer: Natasha Howard (+700)
Howard started the scoring for Minnesota against Chicago on Monday and actually had two looks at the basket before that make, missing a layup and having another one turned away from towering Sky center Kamilla Cardoso. She won’t face that size versus Toronto and the Lynx attack inside to start the scoring tonight.
Jason Logan’s 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 2-2, -0.26 units
SGP: 1-3, +0.9 units
First basket: 0-4, -4.0 units
Tempo vs Lynx odds
Spread: Toronto +6.5 | Minnesota -6.5
Moneyline: Toronto +220 | Minnesota -270
Over/Under: Over 173 | Under 173
Tempo vs Lynx trend
Toronto has topped the total in the first three games of this road trip, boasting an offensive rating of 123.6 (highest in the league in that span) while also lugging the second worst defensive rating (117.3) in those games. Those games have seen an average of almost 195 combined points. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Tempo vs Lynx
Location
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
TSN, Victory+
Tempo vs Lynx latest injuries
Tempo: Temi Fagbenle (Out), Nyara Sabally (Doubtful), Isabelle Harrison (Out), Julie Allemand G (Out).
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Out), Dorka Juhasz (Out), Emma Cechova (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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