Whoever coined the term “six months is an eternity in politics” knew what they were talking about. Again this week we see how political landscapes can undergo tectonic shifts.
Sometimes a fresh face is needed to resuscitate the fortunes of a party in distress. Voters often tire of their government during its second term. It seems almost impossible for any administration these days to be perceived as making change for the better. Disenchantment ultimately focuses heavily on the leader who wears the badge of their administration’s failures.
If that leader leaves and a credible alternative emerges, as did Mark Carney for the federal Liberals, replacing an unpopular Justin Trudeau, voters may seemingly forgive, forget and give a second chance. When the Trudeau Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by some 20 points, no one thought it possible that the party would win the election months later.
In this province, most pundits had been administering last rites to the Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault. Almost eight years in power with several failed projects and mismanagement, the CAQ had dropped near the bottom of the polling barrel and left for dead. Lo and behold, Christine Fréchette replaces Legault and, as a Léger poll showed this week, they’ve surged back into the race heading toward the October election.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette and Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard. Montreal Gazette illustration. Montreal Gazette illustration
In the last federal campaign, despite support for the Conservatives as the alternative, there was discomfort among many voters with their leader, Pierre Poilievre. This eased the path for Carney.
Similarly, despite polls showing the Parti Québécois as the favoured alternative, many voters remain wary of its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, with his commitment to hold a sovereignty referendum that most Quebecers don’t want. This has helped open the door for Fréchette, despite having the same team as her predecessor — and for which voters held considerable disdain.
The recent Fréchette momentum has stalled the Liberals, who can count on a chunk of seats in the Montreal area supported by non-francophones — but cannot win without increasing their share of the francophone vote. On that metric, they trail the PQ by 20 points and the CAQ by nine.
The Léger poll shows that among francophones, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard also lags far behind PSPP and Fréchette in who would make the best premier. He, and the Liberal brand, are perceived as soft on protecting the French language. The question remains: How can he reverse that unjustified perception without striking a nationalist posture, which risks upsetting core support among anglophone voters?
He can start by exploiting one of the aces up his sleeve, a name that didn’t get much attention as news emerged of the star francophone candidates that Milliard has been lining up to run for the Liberals — heavyweights in the fields of education, health care, the economy and regional development.
The name that flew under the radar is Olivier Bertin-Mahieux, the director general of the Fondation Paul Gérin-Lajoie, well known for its major educational project — La Dictée P.G.L. — set up in 1991 as an international competition and educational project aimed at improving young people’s proficiency in the French language in a fun way, while raising their awareness of global issues. Milliard says Bertin-Mahieux will anchor his “French language team,” which could prove to be a crucial play.
Milliard stumbled recently on the language file when confronted with hot-button issues like Bill 96 and the notwithstanding clause. But here’s a chance to shift the focus on protecting French with tangible, positive initiatives related to education.
It’s time to start showcasing the diversity, expertise and promise of his fresh team versus the tired bunch that still prevails at the CAQ.
In six months, we will have a new government. Before then there will be debates, gaffes and evolving geopolitical circumstances that can change the course of the race. For now, the only certainty is we can’t be certain about anything.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee.
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