A lot has been made about the Spurs missing a bunch of 3s in Game 1 but if you dig into the numbers, this is not a new phenomenon. As a team, San Antonio is shooting 35.7 percent from deep in the postseason but against the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, the Spurs did not shoot the ball well either.
Across those seven games, the team shot just 34.1 percent from 3 and that was buoyed by Victor Wembanyama shooting 40 percent from deep after shooting from 35 percent from 3 during the regular season. Even after shooting 40 percent last series, Wemby is still only a 35.6 3-point shooter in the playoffs. Stephon Castle shot 23.3 percent from deep in the series and De’Aaron Fox shot 22.7 percent.
Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell are the most likely candidates to get going from deep but it will require more than that to win this series.
Positive shooting regression is certainly a thing and San Antonio will probably make more 3s but that logic applies to both teams.