It has been said that to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship when the 10-race Chase rolls around in September, a driver must be in the top six in the series standings. 

When points are reset for the 16 championship hopefuls, the leader will receive a 25-point advantage over second; second will have a 10-point advantage over third and each subsequent driver from third on down to 16th will have a five-point advantage over the other. 

Being within 50 points of the leader ahead of the postseason-opening Southern 500 on Sept. 6 seems to be the benchmark drivers and teams are abiding by.

With 14 races in the books this season, there are only 12 remaining in the regular season. Ahead of Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan, here are the points battles within the top-six and how they’re shaping up. 

Battle for the points lead: Tyler Reddick vs. Denny Hamlin

Reddick’s torrid pace to start the season allowed him to open up a massive gap to the field, but Hamlin has at least clawed within double digits (-97) over the last few weeks. Hamlin seems content staying in P2, and while it seems likely that Reddick holds onto the No. 1 seed, Hamlin only being 25 points back when the Chase starts would allow for a fantastic championship battle. 

Battle for third: Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Elliott vs. Ty Gibbs

Blaney enters Sunday’s race 77 points back of Hamlin for second, so it seems more likely he’s fighting to hang onto third during the summer stretch. But that will be easier said than done, as Chase Elliott is only 23 points behind him with Ty Gibbs 34 behind the No. 12. This battle will be one of the most interesting ones in the field to keep an eye on over the next 12 races. 

Battle for sixth: Kyle Larson vs. Christopher Bell vs. Chris Buescher vs. Carson Hocevar vs. Daniel Suarez

It would be possible for a driver to win the championship from anywhere in the standings, but with sixth being the supposed benchmark, it’s an important battle to keep an eye on. 

Larson, or any other driver in the bottom half of the top 10, could catch Gibbs and reach the top five. Larson is 40 points back of Gibbs going into Sunday. 

However, sixth through 10th is separated by only 31 points, with Larson holding onto the all-important sixth position by only 10 points over Bell. 

All five of these drivers have been running similarly to each other for much of the season, making it one that should go down to the wire of the regular season.