Denny Hamlin won at Nashville but still trails Tyler Reddick in the overall NASCAR Cup Series standings. Chase Briscoe’s third-place finish helped him stay above the cut-off at 14th. Next up, the race of manufacturer bragging rights in Brooklyn, Michigan.
As always, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answer our most pressing questions and make predictions about the upcoming race.
The FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway is Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video and HBO Max.
Race winner odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400
While historically Ford has dominated at Michigan, a Toyota has won the past two years. As this is NASCAR’s last remaining 2-mile oval, the fastest track on the circuit and one where manufacturers take pride in the results, which cars are best suited for the track this year?
Jeff: This just feels like Toyota’s world right now on intermediate-style tracks. As Denny Hamlin noted on his podcast this week, he’s running different setups than his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, and they still finished 1-2-3 at Nashville — which would indicate they have a larger window to play with than other manufacturers. Kyle Larson recently discussed how the new Chevy body is so sensitive to changes; he’s afraid to ask for too much during a race as they could go from fast to slow extremely quickly with one small change. And Ford seemingly needs a new body in general right now. So until Chevy catches up and fine-tunes their new car, I’m not sure anyone will be faster than Toyotas on intermediates.
Jordan: With this race being in the backyard of Chevrolet and Ford, it takes on added importance due to the bragging rights at stake. But they’re going to be hard-pressed on Sunday to get the W, as it’s Toyota that’s best suited to run well on a track where horsepower and aerodynamics matter so much. And as we’ve seen throughout the season thus far, the Toyotas excel on intermediate-sized tracks, which Michigan is classified as, and there is no reason to think this won’t again be the case again.
Can Michigan natives Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones or Carson Hocevar secure their first-ever Michigan win?
Jeff: I’d say Hocevar has the best chance because he ran well here last year and Spire has taken another step up in performance this year. Obviously, he is highly motivated at this track – and Keselowski has been chasing a long-sought Michigan victory for well over a decade. Still, I’d put the Michigan power rankings as Hocevar, Keselowski and then Jones.
Jordan: Of the native Michiganders, it is Hocevar who has the best chance to score a home-track win — something he nearly pulled off a year ago. It will greatly help his cause if he can have a clean day, both on the track and in the pits, which at times has been an issue for him and the No. 77 team this season. But they have the speed to be a factor Sunday, even if Hocevar is driving a Chevrolet.
Last week, you spoke about waiting for Chase Briscoe to get hot, and then he finished third in Nashville. Was that the start of a midseason run, and how do you see him faring here and in the Cup standings?
Jeff: Briscoe should again be able to run top three at Michigan or win the race, but you could have said that for a bunch of races this year when he wasn’t able to capitalize or found trouble. So it hasn’t been a speed problem, it’s been a finishing problem. If the team can just run where they should every week, he’ll get back into a decent spot for Chase seeding and can legitimately make a run at the championship this fall if he isn’t too far out of the points by the time it starts.
Jordan: If Briscoe could just finish races comparable to his average running position, he’d be significantly higher in the standings. But finishing races strongly has hampered the No. 19 team all season, in part due to bad luck and also in part because of self-inflicted mistakes. What Nashville showed was the potential for this team, where they’re every bit as strong as the sport’s best. What they need to work on is consistency, because if they can improve on this, Briscoe is a title contender.
While it’s not happening this week, there’s a lot of chatter about former Formula One driver Kevin Magnussen making his NASCAR debut in San Diego. What are your thoughts on his entry, and do you think he has a future in NASCAR?
Jeff: It’s somewhat cool, but also in some ways feels like a letdown based on the speculation. For as much of a longshot as it was, the internet thought the mystery driver could be Max Verstappen (with Trackhouse’s Red Bull sponsorship connection, even though F1’s Red Bull connection is with Ford and Trackhouse runs Chevrolets) or maybe the popular Daniel Ricciardo. K-Mag is intriguing, but he doesn’t quite bring the splash someone else might have. In that sense, it’s just a case of over-hyped expectations versus reality.
Jordan: It’s nice to see Trackhouse continue its Project 91 program that allows drivers such as Magnussen to dip their toes in the proverbial NASCAR waters. But a predominantly oval-heavy schedule combined with changes to how a driver makes the Chase championship makes it unlikely that Magnussen would be making anything but a cameo appearance. Plus, the Danish driver has made it clear he enjoys competing in top-flight sports car races, many of which conflict with NASCAR’s calendar.
Who do you like to win at Michigan this year?
Jeff: As mentioned with Toyota, it’s probably either a JGR car or a 23XI car. I know that’s not exactly going out on a limb, so I’ll try a bit more than the obvious Hamlin/Bell/Briscoe/Reddick pick and say Ty Gibbs. He has three top-10 finishes in the four Next Gen races here.
Jordan: This is another week where it feels like the winner will be driving a Toyota. So let’s ride the hot hand and pick Hamlin, who in the past three weeks won the non-points All-Star Race, should’ve won the crown jewel Coca-Cola 600 and did win last week at Nashville. And Hamlin just so happens to be the defending race winner at Michigan.
Which long shot do you think could surprise?
Jeff: I know I sounded dismissive of Jones earlier with the Michigan natives question, but he knows how to get around this place and has looked better lately. He’s never finished worse than 16th in the Next Gen car here (and the other three races were all 11th or better), so he could certainly do it if Toyota is as dominant as we think.
Jordan: Zane Smith was my pick last week, and he’s again the pick this week. The Front Row Motorsports driver has finished in the top 10 in both his Michigan starts, and he comes in having finished ninth at Nashville and run exceptionally well at Charlotte, where he led a career-high number of laps. If Front Row brings the same speed as in those races, look for Smith to turn heads.