The Edmonton Oilers’ offseason took a sudden and shocking turn on Monday when it was reported that the organization was interested in signing Mike Babcock as head coach. Later that day, word came, via Ryan Rishaug, that the team’s leadership group is fully behind the idea. It would mean every level of the Oilers, from owner to management to the top players, is behind the plan to name Babcock Edmonton’s next head coach.
Babcock’s coaching story is well documented. A success as an NHL rookie with the Anaheim Ducks, losing in the 2003 Stanley Cup Final to New Jersey, Babcock would eventually win the Cup with the Detroit Red Wings in 2008. After a decade in Detroit, Babcock coached the Toronto Maple Leafs for parts of five seasons with limited playoff success, ultimately getting fired in November 2019. Hired by the Columbus Blue Jackets in July 2023, Babcock resigned in September of that year after allegations surfaced on the “Spittin’ Chiclets” podcast that he asked players to share personal photos on their phones with him.
On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that the NHLPA wants the NHL to investigate Babcock’s short-lived tenure with the Blue Jackets if the Oilers do intend to hire him.
Dan Robson and Katie Strang wrote an exceptional piece for The Athletic in May 2024 with astonishing quotes from former players coached by Babcock. In the conclusion of the article, Robson and Strang write, “To some, Babcock’s ouster in Columbus represented the last breath of a certain coaching archetype. But some front office officials, the men who make or have input in hiring decisions, believe that Babcock got a raw deal in Columbus.” Today, those words seem prescient in light of the reports out of Edmonton.
Babcock’s history as an Oilers coaching candidate
Babcock was in the mix for the Oilers coaching job in 2015. From Elliotte Friedman at the time: “The Oilers aren’t commenting about their situation, but several sources both in North America and attending the World Championships say Edmonton is concerned about waiting for Babcock and not getting him. As a result, they are working on closing a deal with Todd McLellan. At this point, it’s as much up to the coach as it is to the Oilers, but at least one other team pursuing McLellan was hearing Saturday that a deal was close, if not done. Whatever the case, Edmonton is making it known they will close on him rather than wait to talk to Babcock.”
The connections to that 2008 Red Wings Stanley Cup-winning team and the Oilers under owner Daryl Katz are significant. From the Detroit coaching staff that season, McLellan and Jay Woodcroft have already coached the Oilers, with Babcock’s hire seemingly in sight.
Coaching style
Babcock is a puck possession coach who emphasizes positioning and discipline. When he was coaching in the NHL with Anaheim, Detroit and Toronto, his reputation was best described as being devoted to possessing the puck and working hard to get it back once possession was lost. There is an intensity to his teams that serves to suffocate opponents. Playing on the right side of the puck was paramount.
Babcock roster template
Historically, in order to succeed, Babcock needs one elite two-way defender, a goaltender who is elite or close and two strong centres, one of whom can play a shutdown role against the league’s elite opponents.
How many Oilers fit that description? The two elite centres are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, so that position is well covered in Edmonton. The team doesn’t have a goaltender who can be compared to Dominik Hasek, Chris Osgood, Frederik Andersen or even Jean-Sébastien Giguère from Babcock’s past teams.
That leads us to defence, and the legendary names Babcock coached. Nicklas Lidstrom has a claim in the conversation for best overall defenceman of all time. He played brilliant hockey forever, with positioning so sublime that even casual fans would marvel at his brilliance. Babcock did have some success in Toronto without a complete two-way defensive anchor, but Andersen was lights out in net during the most successful Toronto seasons.
Babcock’s forwards tended to be professional two-way forwards who were reliable. He faded players who were one-dimensional or lacked discipline in coverage. Criticisms included reliance on slower veterans and end-of-the-roster forwards who rarely played.
Applying those things to the Oilers
We can make a list of players who would be under pressure based on Babcock’s rosters of the past and the current Edmonton depth chart. Goaltender Tristan Jarry would be under immediate pressure to perform, and a goalie shuffle during the season could occur. Defencemen Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse (if he remains on the team) would need to play a more defensive style that encouraged the safe play and tighter coverage. Forwards who might not play large roles (or exit the roster over the summer) might include Ike Howard and Jack Roslovic.
Players who might enjoy more playing time include Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie, Colton Dach, Josh Samanski and Spencer Stastney.
The heart of the team (McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard) would flourish in the system, although Bouchard might need to tighten up defensively.
Could Babcock succeed in Edmonton?
The answer is yes. Babcock is a solid coach who values possession, cheating for defence, puck support and passing skills. The biggest hockey worry surrounds a lack of two-way types and an elite goaltender. This edition of the Oilers is far from being a good fit as currently populated.
Babcock’s Detroit teams were brilliant in five-on-five GA-60 and expected GA-60. His 2008 Stanley Cup winner boasted a GA-60 of 1.72 (1.76 expected), and his Red Wings teams were routinely in the top 10 in the metric during those seasons. His final year with the team, 2014-15, saw Detroit deliver 1.98 GA-60 (1.94 expected) with a team that had aged and was no longer among the league’s elite.
His Toronto teams were never able to deliver at the same level due to a lack of elite talent. The 2017-18 Maple Leafs team boasted a five-on-five save percentage of .929, tied for No. 3 across the NHL, via Natural Stat Trick. Most of the credit belongs to Andersen, but Babcock’s goalies tended to have impressive save percentages. In Toronto, there was no Lidstrom, and the forwards were young and brilliant, but not at their peak.
A fair reading of Babcock’s coaching record in the NHL: His team delivered elite performances when the talent was also top level, and average or a little better when the elite talent eluded his teams. His best coaching season might have been the first one, with the Ducks 25 years ago.
Bottom line
The Oilers are pivoting this offseason, as the owner, management and key players are laser focused on playing a more disciplined style. This week, fans saw the plan revealed. The choice is Babcock. The motivation is winning.
Babcock would bring discipline and defensive responsibility to the Oilers’ game. That would be a net positive based on the chaos fans saw for much of last season. The Oilers lack a top-flight goalie and a complete defenceman. Those issues are unlikely to be solved over the summer.
The hiring, and possible fallout from the controversy surrounding it, would appear to be the next step. The Oilers under Katz have been a roller-coaster ride for fans, and appear to be poised to deliver a divisive summer in an effort to win the Stanley Cup in 2027.