Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev is as good as it gets.
There are no perfect title challengers in MMA, but Chimaev comes close. Unbeaten and responsible for some of the most vicious in-cage maulings we’ve seen in the past five years, the enigmatic Chimaev seemed destined for a title shot when he burst onto the scene at UFC Fight Island. We’ve taken the long way around and now we’re here, with Chimaev on the cusp of becoming middleweight champion if he can beat du Plessis in the UFC 319 main event.
Even with Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev on the horizon, a superfight between Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili perpetually in the works, the return of Tom Aspinall, and champions Ilia Topuria, Alexandre Pantoja, and Kayla Harrison potentially fighting before the end of the year, it’s difficult to picture a matchup as viscerally pleasing on paper as du Plessis vs. Chimaev. These two are, by the strictest definition of the phrase, forces of nature, and tonight we have the privilege of watching them batter each other for upwards of 25 minutes.
Let’s be real, it probably won’t last that long, with du Plessis and Chimaev unlikely to leave anything in the tank for the trip back. It’s all or nothing in this championship fight and for us fans, we shouldn’t want it any other way.
Where: United Center in Chicago
When: Saturday, Aug. 16. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Dricus du Plessis (1, P4P-5) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (2, P4P-13)
Let’s not overthink this because you know the fighters aren’t.
In the ultimate middleweight meathead battle, the narratives we’ve repeated ad nauseam since Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev was first announced have been prevalent for a reason. Du Plessis is an unorthodox fighter with a gift for outlasting and overwhelming his opposition. Chimaev is an absolute berserker that has to prove he can be just as effective in the championship rounds as he is in the first five minutes. It’s simplistic because it’s true.
No one is saying du Plessis can’t finish early, though Chimaev has proven to be tough as nails even when he can’t turn a fight into one-way traffic. And while Chimaev has never gone past the 15-minute mark, it’s not like he just turned into a sluggish zombie in the final rounds of his fights with Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns. Both guys are saying all the right things about defying expectations.
But my vision is clear. I’ve said for years that when Chimaev is on, there isn’t a soul in the world that can beat him in a fight, and I see no reason to deviate from that belief. Conventional wisdom says Chimaev wins in the first or second round and I’m going with that boring prediction—if you can call running through one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world “boring,” that is.
Aaron Pico (10) vs. Lerone Murphy (9)
This is going to sound incredibly silly considering Lerone Murphy just went five rounds with Josh Emmett and he previously whupped Edson Barboza, but I like Aaron Pico to win because he’s the hardest hitter Murphy has ever faced.
Pico seamlessly blends power, speed, and technique and at 28 he is right in the middle of his athletic prime. “Explosive” doesn’t do the onetime wunderkind justice. He owns a left hand of doom and relishes utilizing punishing body work to break down his opponents’ defenses. His standup offense is impeccable and if he chooses to mix in some wrestling, even better.
There is the question of quality of competition though. What is Pico’s best win? Leandro Higo? Pedro Carvalho? Henry Corrales??? No matter who you pick, Murphy is a huge step up. Essentially the Leon Edwards of the featherweight division, Murphy won’t wow you with his one-punch KO power, nor will he jump into exchanges unless he knows they’re in his favor. What he does is win, whether it’s with precision combinations, airtight defense, or even well-timed takedowns. You can bet he won’t be afraid to test Pico’s wrestling defense.
All good things must come to an end and it feels like the UFC keeps booking Murphy against sluggers in the hopes one of them will push the pesky contender a few steps back in the line. If Pico can become the first fighter to defeat Murphy, and do so by finish, he won’t just break the Bellator curse, he might become the No. 1 contender at 145 pounds overnight.
Geoff Neal (11) vs. Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates is so dangerous, man.
Even with time ticking away in his recent loss to Ian Machado Garry, the Brazilian’s dynamite striking was an ever-present threat, and if he’d only found an opening to unleash earlier he might still be riding a win streak. As it stands, there are clear holes in Prates’ game. But holes that Geoff Neal can exploit? I’m skeptical.
Neal is comfortable playing the spoiler, especially against strikers that are more hyped than he is. Vicente Luque and Mike Perry are two examples, both of whom fell to Neal’s fists and feet. He might be playing with fire if he chooses to stand and strike with Prates, but he’s capable of putting on a scorching performance himself if he can get his rhythm and distance right.
I think Prates learned a lot going five rounds with Garry, especially about pacing and managing his output. He’ll pressure Neal more as the fight progresses, leaving him few options other than to throw down with his back to the fence. And that’s when Prates will add Neal to his highlight reel.
Jared Cannonier (11) vs. Michael Page
I still don’t know why this fight is happening and I don’t expect to be any less confused when it’s over.
Given that Jared Cannonier is currently stuck in middleweight limbo, I suppose this matchup makes a sick sort of sense as there can’t be much motivating Cannonier at this point other than collecting a nice paycheck and continuing do what he loves. That’s true of Michael Page as well and the former Bellator star has essentially admitted he’s only booking fights at 185 pounds because they’re available. Two dudes just staying busy. Not exactly the stuff of legends and that’s OK.
What’s not OK here is a styles clash that could have the always vocal Chicago crowd expressing their displeasure in no uncertain terms. Cannonier isn’t going to chase Page, and Page is going to do everything he can to stay at the edge of Cannonier’s heavier punches. Opportunities for meaningful exchanges will be few and far between. Points will add up, one probing strike at a time. You’re dozing off just reading this, I know.
In a touch-and-go fight, I’m favoring “MVP” every time. It would be fun to see him get back to his viral knockout ways, but competing in a heavier division than he’s used to, he’ll happily settle for the decision win.
Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura
Speed, youth, and punching power are all on Kai Asakura’s side in the main card opener.
While I’d much prefer Asakura to make a permanent move to 135 pounds, he’s apparently sticking around at flyweight and he booked himself the right opponent in Tim Elliott. The tricky grappler is more well-known than Asakura stateside (currently No. 11 in the UFC’s 125-pound rankings) and his ground game should give us a gauge of where Asakura stands in the division after being handled by champion Alexandre Pantoja. Asakura might turn out to not be a top 5 fighter, but surely he’s better than what he showed in his UFC debut.
Elliott will try to drag Asakura to the mat as soon as possible, so Asakura’s takedown defense and cardio will be put to the test. If Asakura keeps this fight standing, he wins; if he doesn’t, Elliott either wears Asakura out for three rounds or adds to his submission woes. There’s no in between.
I’ll lean towards the considerably younger fighter here and pick Asakura to get back on the knockout track.
Baysangur Susurkaev def. Eric Nolan
Gerald Meerschaert def. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Loopy Godinez (11) def. Jessica Andrade (5)
Chase Hooper def. Alexander Hernandez
Drakkar Klose def. Edson Barboza
Karine Silva def. Dione Barbosa
Joseph Morales def. Idiris Alibi