Before the season began, George Russell and Mercedes were seen as an inseparable combination – at least in the foreseeable future.

When the lights went out in Australia, Russell continued to demonstrate why Mercedes should put their faith in his abilities.

The British driver was regularly at the front of the field, giving the McLaren duo occasional headaches and even winning in Canada.

Despite Russell’s objectively strong performances, little progress was made in contract negotiations.

With Verstappen no longer available, negotiations between Russell and Mercedes will be predicated on one key factor.

Mercedes must give Russell long-term security

Throughout the last few months, Russell has given several statements – sometimes contradictory ones – about his future.

Belgian Grand Prix, Sunday, Richard Pardon

On one hand, he insisted “there’s literally no stress, no worries whatsoever” about his future in April.

A few months later, however, Russell told the media that Mercedes were indeed speaking with Verstappen.

Although acquiring Verstappen would not have necessarily been at Russell’s expense, Wolff’s talks with the Dutchman still demonstrated his priorities.

The fact Russell still hasn’t reached an agreement, and doesn’t plan to over the summer, is evidence enough that little progress on a new contract has been made.

For the Brackley-based team, it might be in their interest to offer the 27-year-old a 1+1 year contract.

This would give Mercedes some flexibility in next year’s driver market. With doubts lingering about Red Bull’s 2026 project, Verstappen’s situation will almost certainly be monitored.

From Russell’s perspective, of course, this contract does not provide any real security.

It is easy to forget that just over twelve months ago, before signing Kimi Antonelli, Toto Wolff consistently mentioned Verstappen as a target for 2025.

There is no reason so believe that Wolff’s interest in the 4-time Champion has weakened since then.

If anything, this year has emphasised the Austrian’s long-standing ambition of signing the Red Bull driver.

Because of this, especially since there are no alternatives, Russell has a unique opportunity to secure his position amidst Mercedes’ admiration of Verstappen.

Although he continues to state he isn’t opposed to being teammates with Verstappen, Russell certainly doesn’t want a contract that could leave him vulnerable to being replaced.

This need for a multi-year contract is almost certain to dominate talks over the coming months.

2024 Bahrain Test, Day 1 – Jiri Krenek
Antonelli and Verstappen

Of course, Mercedes must also consider Kimi Antonelli in their negotiations.

The 18-year-old has shown plenty of potential this year, claiming a season-best result by taking a podium in Canada.

At the same time, the Italian has shown the inconsistency you would anticipate from such a young driver.

Whilst Antonelli’s mistakes are to be expected, Mercedes must decide if they are willing to keep Antonelli at the expense of having the flexibility to sign Verstappen.

Considering the 2026 market will be wide open, Verstappen will have multiple options if he wants to leave Red Bull.

In this scenario, Mercedes would prefer to have the ability to at least entertain discussions with the Dutchman.

Of course, signing both Russell and Antonelli to multi-year agreements would restrict their market activity.

If Mercedes miss out on signing Verstappen next year, their chances of ever securing his signature will substantially diminish.

Because of this, Toto Wolff must decide to what extent he believes in Russell and Antonelli – and whether either is expendable in the pursuit of the 4-time Champion.

The terms of Russell and Antonelli’s next contracts should provide some insights to answer this question.

Main photo: Jiri Krenek (via Mercedes media gallery)