Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 23, 2026 , 11:51 AM ET
• 4 min read
The Las Vegas Aces have a renewed focus on defense just in time to take on the struggling New York Liberty. Jason Logan keeps it simple, backing the champs to win outright on a modest moneyline.
Photo By – Reuters Connect.
There’s never a “good” time to see the defending champion Las Vegas Aces on your schedule. For the New York Liberty, Vegas is showing up at possibly the worst time.
The Liberty are on a two-game stumble, including a blown 17-point lead in L.A. on Sunday, and star guard Sabrina Ionescu is struggling since returning from a back injury.
That has New York pegged as a 2.5-point road underdog in Sin City tonight.
My Liberty vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks don’t see New York getting right in this June 23 matchup.
Liberty vs Aces prediction
Liberty vs Aces best bet: Aces moneyline (-140)
The New York Liberty stare down a three-game skid with limited time to prep for the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces are refocused and dedicated to improving their defense after an embarrassing loss to Dallas last week.
Since coach Becky Hammon blasted Vegas’ efforts, the champs responded with two lockdown wins, allowing 73 and 76 points while posting a defensive rating of 99.3 (down from 108.0).
If that defense sticks, the Aces are the best two-way team New York has faced in a while after playing the likes of L.A., Washington (twice), and Chicago the last 10 days.
COVERS INTEL: The Liberty’s defense doesn’t travel. New York bleeds 91 ppg as a visitor with a rating of 110.0 (10th) — 13 points more than at home, where it owns a defensive rating of 98.7 (third).
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Liberty vs Aces same-game parlay
When locked in on defense, Las Vegas is the best team in the WNBA and a big step up in competition compared to New York’s recent runs.
The Aces are among the offensive elite and face a Liberty defense that doesn’t get off the bus. The current market pricing respects New York’s overall spot in the WNBA’s pecking order, but overrates its current form against a Vegas side with something to prove. FYI: these teams will battle for the Commissioner’s Cup on June 30.
Satou Sabally was New York’s big offseason add, and she’s starting to find her way in Chris DeMarco’s “positionless” schemes. Her usage tops the team in the past five games, which have seen a spike in 3-point activity. She’s made three triples in each of her last two games and is projected for at least two against a softer Aces perimeter defense.
A’ja Wilson has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in five of her eight games this month, with those single-digit efforts reserved to blowout wins. She stays close to the rim on defense vs. New York’s combo of Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart, having recorded 10 or more rebounds in four straight meetings with the Liberty (save for an injury-shortened outing last July).
Game models call for 10+ boards tonight.
Liberty vs Aces SGP
Aces moneyline
Satou Sabally Over 1.5 threes
A’ja Wilson Over 9.5 rebounds
Liberty vs Aces player prop pick
Satou Sabally Over 1.5 threes (-135)
Satou Sabally is stepping into a bigger offensive role with Sabrina Ionescu struggling, leading the Liberty in usage over the past five games. She’s most notably filling the gap from 3-point land.
The All-Star small forward has upped her action from beyond the arc, attempting four or more triples in four of the past five games.
Sabally has knocked down at least two 3-pointers in three of those games, including shooting a collective 6-for-14 the past two contests. She logged a season-high in minutes (27) and 3-point attempts last game, going 3-for-8 in the loss at Los Angeles.
For all the Aces’ defensive improvements, their soft spot is still the perimeter. Las Vegas sits 12th in 3-point defense and allows foes to hit 9.2 treys an outing — second most.
Game script says New York is fighting from behind, which means an emphasis on big buckets from distance. Sabally’s player projections are positive with 2.2 makes from long range. That should have the Over 1.5 priced at -170.
Jason Logan’s 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 10-8, +0.86 units
SGP: 4-13, +3.4 units
Liberty vs Aces odds
Spread: Liberty +2.5 | Aces -2.5
Moneyline: Liberty +115 | Aces -135
Over/Under: Over 178.5 | Under 178.5
Liberty vs Aces trend
New York’s dismal defense on the road has led to a perfect 7-0 run for the Over when the Liberty are visitors, compared to 3-7 O/U at home. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Aces
Location
Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Tip-off
10 p.m. ET
TV
USA Network
Liberty vs Aces latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Aces: Chennedy Carter G (Out), Dana Evans G (Out), Janiah Barker F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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