A million dollars is up for grabs again this year in the NASCAR Cup Series In-Season Challenge that kicks off at Sonoma Raceway. It’s a winner-take-all bonus with the champion determined at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in late July.
Ty Gibbs won the $1 million last year in the bonus program’s inaugural season.
The top 32 drivers participating in this year’s bracket-style tournament were determined by their positions in the point standings after the Pocono event. Each week, the driver with the highest finishing position in the head-to-head match-ups advances. The field will be reduced to 16 for the second round at Chicagoland Speedway, then eight for EchoPark Speedway at Atlanta, and four for North Wilkesboro Speedway.
Fans may also participate with the person producing a perfect bracket receiving $1 million.
The races are on TNT.
Listed below are the matchups for the opening round at Sonoma Raceway with my picks for this weekend.
Tyler Reddick vs. Alex Bowman
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Reddick possesses the advantage in this matchup. Not only is Reddick having the best season of his career with five victories, but his first two career Cup victories came on road courses—Road America and Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit. The point standings leader also capped a three-race win streak this year with a victory at Circuit of The Americas. Bowman exited COTA early with vertigo and missed four races during his recovery. The Hendrick Motorsports driver hasn’t recorded a top-10 finish since May at Texas Motor Speedway.
Denny Hamlin vs. Ty Dillon
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Hamlin laughed after his Pocono victory when he learned of his first-round matchup because it’s a repeat of last year’s. In 2025, the In-Season Challenge began at Atlanta and Hamlin was eliminated in an early race crash that involved nearly half of the 40-car field. Dillon advanced and eventually challenged Ty Gibbs for the $1 million bonus in the championship round. Even though Hamlin admits road racing isn’t his forte, he’ll get redemption this year and advance to the second round.
Ryan Blaney vs. Josh Berry
Blaney has been Ford’s flagship this season while Berry has struggled. The nod goes to Blaney who has produced six top 10s in the last seven races and is fresh off a ninth-place finish in the inaugural street course race at Naval Base Coronado. Berry placed 29th in that event.
Chase Elliott vs. Noah Gragson
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Even though Elliott’s performance on road courses in the current Cup car hasn’t been as strong as it was in the Gen-6, he’ll still defeat Gragson in this head-to-head matchup. In nine starts on the 1.99-mile road course, Elliott has finished outside the top 10 only twice. His last finish outside the top 10 came in 2019 when his Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet had engine problems. This year, Elliott already has two victories, five top-five and eight top-10 finishes, while Gragson has one top 10.
Ty Gibbs vs. Austin Dillon
While Dillon is the veteran in this matchup—16 years to five—Gibbs is out-performing Dillon this year. Therefore, my nod goes to Gibbs, the defending In-Season Challenge champion. In 17 races this year, Gibbs owns one victory, six top-five and 10 top-10 finishes. Dillon’s lone top 10 this season came at Watkins Glen.
Kyle Larson vs. Riley Herbst
Even though Larson’s winless streak stands at 41 races, he still possesses the advantage over Herbst. Larson has two victories at Sonoma and an average finish of 15. Herbst’s made his Sonoma debut last year with a 25th-place finish.
Chris Buescher vs. John Hunter Nemechek
In this Ford vs. Toyota matchup, give the nod to Buescher and his RFK Racing Ford. In nine Sonoma races, Buescher has produced a 13.1 average finish that includes three consecutive top fives. Nemechek has had only two starts at Sonoma with a 28.5 average finish.
Daniel Suarez vs. Todd Gilliland
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Suarez recorded his first Cup Series victory at Sonoma in 2022 and with the new energy he has shown this year at Spire Motorsports, the Mexico native will come out ahead of Gilliland. Sitting eighth in the point standings, Suarez has one victory, two top-five and five top-10 finishes this season. Gilliland is 25thin the standings with one top 10 which came in April at Bristol.
Carson Hocevar vs. Zane Smith
Smith’s methodical approach will pay dividends with the Front Row Motorsports driver finishing ahead of the more aggressive Hocevar. In the two previous road/street courses this season, Smith finished 33rd and fourth, while Hocevar placed 31st and 19th. Smith’s average finish at Sonoma is 25.7. Hocevar’s is 24.5.
Christopher Bell vs. Ross Chastain
Bell and Chastain are closely aligned in their Sonoma performances with Bell having a 14.8 average finish and Chastain’s average finish being 14.3. However, Bell’s broken left wrist puts him at a disadvantage this year and; therefore, I’m giving Chastain the nod to advance.
William Byron vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Byron possesses a statistical advantage over Stenhouse at Sonoma with the Hendrick Motorsports driver’s average finish being 20. Stenhouse’s average finish is 26. Byron has two top-10 finishes and one DNF, while Stenhouse has no top-10 finishes and two DNFs. Byron will come out ahead in this matchup.
Chase Briscoe vs. A.J. Allmendinger
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Statistically, the two competitors are close at Sonoma. Briscoe’s average finish is 19 while Allmendinger’s is 20.6. In five starts, Briscoe has produced one top 10 while Allmendinger has four. However, Allmendinger is known for his road racing prowess. All three of his NASCAR Cup victories have been on road courses while 11 of his 18 O’Reilly Auto Parts Series wins have come on them. Allmendinger will mark his 500th Cup Series start with a win in the In-Season Challenge.
Bubba Wallace vs. Michael McDowell
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Wallace has improved his performance on NASCAR’s road/street courses, but McDowell remains the favorite to eliminate the 23XI Racing driver in the first round. One of McDowell’s two Cup victories came on a road course, and he has three top-five and four top-10 finishes at Sonoma. Wallace has yet to record a top-10 finish at Sonoma. His best finish at the Northern California track occurred in 2021when he placed 14th.
Shane van Gisbergen vs. Ryan Preece
Sonoma’s defending race winner Van Gisbergen possesses the advantage in this matchup. Preece performed well in the street course race at Naval Base Coronado, leading five laps and consistently running in the top 10 before settling for 11th. However, Van Gisbergen is always a victory contender on the road courses.
Erik Jones vs. Joey Logano
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Both drivers have struggled this year. It’s basically a tossup, but I have to go with Jones due to his performance in the last three races. In that time span, Jones has recorded one top five and two top 10s, while Logano has had one top 10. Logano also has had only three top 10s and no top fives in the last 10 races.
Austin Cindric vs. Brad Keselowski
Cindric is my pick in this matchup for two reasons. The Team Penske driver is known for his road racing ability and Keselowski is still recovering from the broken leg he suffered in the off-season. Keselowski says the injury he suffered in December has a 12-month recovery period.
A North Carolina native, Deb Williams is an award-winning motorsports journalist who is in her fourth decade covering auto racing. In addition to covering the sport for United Press International, she has written motorsports articles for several newspapers, magazines and websites including espnW.com, USA Today, and The Charlotte Observer. Her awards include the American Motorsports Media Award of Excellence, two-time National Motorsports Press Association writer of the year, and two-time recipient of the Russ Catlin award. She also has won an award in the North Carolina Press Association’s sports feature category. During her career, Deb has been managing editor of GT Motorsports magazine and was with Winston Cup Scene and NASCAR Winston Cup Scene for 18 years, serving as the publication’s editor for 10 years. In 2024 she was inducted into the NMPA Hall of Fame.