Independent analyst Colin Talks Crypto says Bitcoin’s market cycles may be far more regular than many assume.
Re-measuring the last three bull-market advances from their bear-market lows, he finds a near-uniform 35-month span from bottom to peak – an observation that, if it repeats, would place the next potential cycle top around October 2025.
Colin revisited cycle lengths after seeing conflicting charts. He tested two ways of dating past bottoms:
Measure A: 25 months (cycle 1), 28 months (cycle 2), 35 months (cycle 3).
Measure B: 37, 35, and 35 months, respectively.
He favors Measure B for its consistency, while noting two caveats. First, calling the 2010 low the start of cycle 1 is unconventional but produces the 37-month reading. Second, cycle 2 formed a double bottom; depending on which trough you select, its length is 28 or 35 months. Either way, the third cycle clocked 35 months, reinforcing the pattern.
Under this template, the current cycle, counting from the November 2022 bear-market low – would reach month 35 in October 2025. The model does not predict a price, only timing, and Colin stresses the idea of diminishing returns: each cycle’s percentage gain tends to be smaller than the last.
Why the timing argument resonates
Bitcoin’s cycles have often been discussed in relation to halving dates, liquidity waves, and macro policy. Colin’s bottom-to-top timing sidesteps those drivers and simply measures market behavior. A repeated 35-month cadence suggests investor psychology and capital flows may settle into a rhythm-long enough for disbelief to turn to euphoria, but not so long that excesses can’t build.
What could break the pattern
History rhymes, it doesn’t repeat. Exogenous shocks (policy pivots, recession, major ETF flows, security events) can truncate or elongate cycles. Even if October 2025 proves pivotal, the “top” could be a range in time-a cluster of highs-rather than a single daily print.
How to use (and not misuse) the model
For long-horizon participants, a date-based framework can help stage entries and de-risking, while avoiding the trap of chasing parabolic moves late in the cycle. For traders, it’s a context tool, not a signal: breadth, funding, options skew, and on-chain distribution still matter for timing.
The takeaway: if Bitcoin’s bottom-to-top rhythm holds near 35 months, the window for a cycle climax opens in Q4 2025. Expect diminishing percentage gains, wider swings into that window, and remember that models guide—they don’t guarantee. This is not financial advice.
Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.
