We at Sherdog remain
constantly active for major events, such as the regular
in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for
all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official
sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here
and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes,
with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside.
Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with
their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way
off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where
we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where we
dive into the upcoming Ultimate Fighting Championship show in
Azerbaijan and take a brief Professional Fighters League stop off on San
Diego. Try it out.

One UFC trend bettors shouldn’t ignore this weekend

Typically, when the UFC goes on the road, it fills the billing with
local athletes to boost ticket sales and otherwise give the home
city or country fans something else to cheer for on fight night.
This year, it has been quite obvious the level of matchmaking
granted to said local athletes against foreign adversaries, and the
betting lines have matched. What will we gain from Abdulrakhman
Yakhyaev at -675 posterize Julius
Walker? Other than to pad his paycheck and scoop potential
bonus money for a stoppage, what does Daniel Donchenko stand to add
to his life by facing late replacement and huge underdog Theodor
Berggren (+385)?

Sherdog editor Ben Duffy often analyzes fight shows and how he
rates them based on what he gleans from the six-plus hour
engagement. Did he learn something about the athletes? Did someone
show a new arrow in their quiver, or have them actively diminished
in their skills? There many be plenty to gather from individual
pairings, but when they appear on paper situationally created to
give those brought in advantages for this fight card, it takes away
from those takeaways. While the city of Baku may be nearly 100 feet
below sea level, how would we know if an unsuccessful athlete only
failed due to the travel and acclimation conditions?

When the UFC made its first splash in Azerbaijan last year, it did
so with three local competitors in tow, and two of those prevailed.
Previous debut shows in new nations France, Denmark and Uruguay all
had UFC fighters from those respective countries all prevail. The
UFC may not need to have a clean sweep of homers getting their hand
raised in order to come back to big site fees next year, but it
certainly would help with ticket sales while the costs to attending
events has skyrocketed. It almost seems like an eventuality that
when the UFC takes to a new market or returns to an underserved
one, it matches the event accordingly for red meat and thrilling
expected results. Is that right?

Why A.J. McKee offers value against Salamat Isbulaev
(+100)

It may come as a bit of a surprise that established Bellator MMA crossover talent A.J. McKee is
not getting respect from the books. Currently in the midst of his
athletic prime coming off of good wins over talent opposition, this

PFL San Diego headliner is showing the good stuff. We wish
McKee vs. the unbeaten Salamat
Isbulaev was a five-round engagement, for all the extra
knowledge we could have gathered from two potential championship
rounds, but that does not take away from the bout itself.

Top notch
featherweights headline PFL San Diego: Tune in Saturday, June 27 at
7 p.m. ET on ESPN 2.

There are ample questions to be answered about the incoming
featherweight from Kazakhstan. With 10 wins, all 10 inside the
distance and no pro outing lasting longer than 7:16, what happens
when brick not hit back? Jesus
Pinedo is an excellent scalp to collect on his mantle, and
unquestionably established Isbulaev as one to watch. He is not
taking the easy road to top contender status, as by diving right
after elite opposition he seems to want to get through foes before
the increased pressure of fighting for gold. What happens when
McKee does not go down after Isbulaev’s first full-throated surge
of offense, or when he survives the first submission attempt. How
will the Kazakh’s morale fare when he hits “The Mercenary” with
everything he has and McKee does not go down?

We have seen McKee fully capable of servicing as a frontrunner but
also as someone who can outlast what comes his way. Sometimes,
letting a flying Adam Borics
soar past with a knee is better than trying to tank it and fire
back. Perhaps hitting a quick armbar on Clay
Collard is thinking smarter and not fighting harder by wading
directly into the fire. McKee has stood up against more
battle-tested opposition, has substantially greater experience and
a fully functional gas tank. All of these lean to his favor, which
makes McKee at even money a good get.