As drivers venture to California’s “Wine Country” for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), they will begin battle in the second installment of the In-Season Challenge.

The challenge, which pits 32 drivers against one another in a head-to-head, bracket-style format, returns for a second season after Ty Gibbs became the inaugural winner of the $1M prize in 2025.

While the five-race slate could produce some surprises, there are others who could see their tournament run come to a premature end. With that in mind, here are three drivers who could disappoint in the 2026 In-Season Challenge.

No. 9 seed Carson Hocevar

Hocevar picked up his first Cup Series win at Talladega earlier this season and currently sits ninth in points. As much of a breakout season as this has been for the polarizing young driver, Hocevar has not experienced much success on road courses, including a dismal average finish of 24.5 in two starts at Sonoma.

He was running second at Naval Base Coronado until race winner Corey Heim spun him while battling for second with 12 laps to go, but Hocevar’s track record at Sonoma does not provide much optimism.

To make matters worse, he faces the No. 24 seed Zane Smith, who has impressed all season and just finished fourth at San Diego. Smith may only have a best finish of 16th in three starts at Sonoma, but this is a tough first-round matchup for Hocevar. 

No. 10 seed Christopher Bell

Bell is currently mired at 12th in the standings following a third consecutive finish of 26th or worse in San Diego. With that said, he was in contention to win at Michigan before suffering a fractured left wrist in a violent crash and led in the closing laps at Pocono before running out of fuel.

Those three results followed back-to-back runner-up finishes at Charlotte and Nashville, a reminder of the speed that this No. 20 team brings to the track each week. That has not exactly translated to results and could eliminate Bell in the first round.

Not only that, but he swapped out with O’Reilly Auto Parts Series driver Brent Crews during the first caution at Coronado, leaving some doubt that he may not be able to complete all 110 laps on Sunday. Bell has a solid 14.8 average finish at Sonoma, but injury concerns and No. 23 seed Ross Chastain, who has four top 10s at the Northern California road course, could be too much to overcome. 

No. 11 seed William Byron

The 2025 regular-season champion has had an uncharacteristic season with five finishes of 30th or worse. Byron has developed into one of the most consistent and versatile drivers in the series and has two road course wins, but is still in search of a breakthrough at Sonoma.

Coming off a disappointing 32nd-place finish at San Diego, it may be tough sledding for Byron again with zero top fives and a 20.0 average finish at Sonoma in seven starts, though he does have an impressive average starting position of 9.7.

While he should escape a first-round matchup against No. 22 seed Ricky Stenhouse Jr., a potential second-round meeting with Hendrick Motorsports teammate and No. 6 seed Kyle Larson could be where his run ends considering Larson’s strong resume at Chicagoland Speedway.