I am moving on from Mike Babcock-gate.
I will re-litigate the off-ice version of the new Edmonton Oilers Head Coach if and when it is called for. Promise.
But until then, let us look at the impact Babcock is likely to have on the roster. On the ice. Which players should thrive, maintain status quo, or perhaps regress under this new regime?
For the purposes of this exercise, we will limit the analysis to players already on the NHL roster, no pending UFA’s or would-be free agent signings. I will still include RFA’s, as the club still maintains control of their rights for now. And to be included here the players will also need to have at least 1 NHL game on their resume.
O.K.? Let’s get going…
Progress, Maintain, Regress
Tristan Jarry. Given Mike Babcock’s reputation for running a tight defensive ship, goaltenders (especially veteran ones) should thrive within greater structure. An improved PK will help Jarry as well. For that reason and considering the veteran tender’s purposeful off-season training plans? Progress.
Evan Bouchard. This prediction will fly against type a bit, as Bouchard is not primarily known for his defence. But I expect Bouchard’s game to flourish within a more structured approach. Clearly new Associate Coach D.J. Smith liked what he saw at World’s. Most elite-level athletes have capacity to grow. Progress.
Mattias Ekholm. I would fall over in shock if the grizzled veteran does not seamlessly fold into the new Oilers approach. A pro’s pro, I expect Ekholm to set an example for others. And while slightly reduced TOI should help, I am projecting he ultimately Maintains. At his age, a real plus.
Darnell Nurse. Wild card. Nurse’s best hockey has not come under inexperienced coaching. Would the Babcock/Smith CV be enough to transform and settle down Nurse’s game. I would like to think so, but…the proof would be in the pudding. At best…Maintain.
Connor Murphy. Like Ekholm, I expect Murphy to be a meaningful part of the solution for the Oilers rather than the problem. Babcock is a role guy. Murphy is a role player. From the outside looking in it seems like a perfect fit. Progress.
Jake Walman. I like this player a bunch. But the jury is out on how he will adapt to his new world. His game can be ragged at times, and a bit consistent. And while yes injuries have been a part of that, I do not anticipate a lot of patience for either. Regress.
Ty Emberson. This kid is a pretty straight shooter. His game is meat & potatoes, which I suspect will be to the coach’s liking. That said, I also believe Emberson’s ceiling is limited. For that reason alone…Maintain.
Spencer Stastney. I may be proven wrong (and I hope I am), but I do not see Stastney as a prototypical Mike Babcock guy. Particularly good skater but a bit too much chaos in his game. Regress.
Alex Regula. I expect the fresh staff to recognize this guy’s tools and wingspan and give him a decent shot. But unless Regula starts using his size more effectively and aggressively, I expect him to end up on the outside looking in. Regress.
Connor McDavid. The captain is the absolute least likely to regress. Pure elite talent aside, McDavid is the very guy asking for this approach. It would be outright shocking if it did not result in a more well-rounded superstar. If it does falter, it would be tragic failure on both men’s part. Progress.
Leon Draisaitl. My gut tells me that Draisaitl will absolutely thrive in this environment. I have always believed he has Selke potential. I expect the new staff will see the same. And Leon is enough of a fierce competitor to comply under pressure. Progress.
Zach Hyman. Surely among the least likely to take a step back, given the mutual respect between Hyman and Babcock. They do not come much more honest of a competitor than Hyman. But he is also older and has battled injury. More for those reasons far more than the former, Maintain.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. A played as cerebral and honest as ninety-three should get a fair shake with Babcock. However, I can foresee The Nuge in a more defensive role which could erode his production. Even likely, in fact. Regress.
Vasiky Podkolzin. If Mike Babcock does not absolutely embrace this player, then I will finally believe that Rich Tochett saw something off in the rugged winger that the rest of us did not. But I do not expect that. At. All. Progress.
Trent Frederic. I may take some heat for this, but I suspect Babcock is just what the doctor ordered. Frederic clearly regressed under Knoblauch. But his skill set matches the plan. And he has a lot to prove. Heaps. Progress.
Jason Dickinson. What I said about Connor Murphy applies equally to Dickinson. I fully expect him to be leaned on heavily and trusted. Progress.
Matt Savoie. On one hand, Savoie arrived in the NHL with a defensive conscience, battle, and hustle. But Babcock’s history with kids is spotty. Regress.
Mattias Janmark. Tough call. I think Janmark will fully accept his role and fill it as best as he can. Bigger questions are age and injury, not the coach. Maintain.
Josh Samanski. Hmmm. My Spidey Sense says Babcock will appreciate the kid’s old-school approach and responsible play. But…again…rookie. Maintain.
Ike Howard. Is it just me, or does this feel like a square peg? Did Howard learn enough about being a well-rounded pro in Bakersfield to end up in Bab’s good books? Regress.
Colton Dach. Tough call. I think Babcock may have to kick his ass a couple times, as Dach is not the most disciplined performer. But I cannot help but think the coach will see the benefit beneath all that int he young man. Maintain.
Once you total up all of what I have arrived at here (subjective as it surely is), it is hard not to see why Stan Bowman and Company saw Mike Babcock as part of the Stanley Cup solution. Eight progressions, including from your three very best players. Six regressions, mostly bottom-end. I will take that math.
But whether all this happens by May, is still to be determined.
This article is not AI generated.
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