Southern and western Manitoba, including Winnipeg, are under an orange-level severe thunderstorm watch Monday afternoon, with Environment Canada warning that damaging weather could develop into the evening and overnight hours.

The watch was issued shortly before 2:30 p.m. as a developing system tracks north from the United States, bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, large hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, says conditions are being closely monitored as the system organizes.

“It’s really stretching from just west of Killarney right through Steinbach into northwest Ontario at this point in time. It’s where the area that has the best possibility of producing any tornado activity,” Proctor said.

Areas just north of that corridor are more likely to see severe thunderstorms, though impacts could still be significant.

“We’re expecting those areas not to be tornadic potentially, but to have a really good chance of seeing some heavy downpours, some good winds and some potentially storm damage,” Proctor said.

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He added that an area of low pressure developing over North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is feeding into the system moving toward Manitoba.

“We’re really watching an area that’s developing sort of in eastern North Dakota right now and northwestern Minnesota. It’s sort of stretching and tracking up into southern Manitoba at this point.”

Timing expected into the evening

If storms develop, they are expected to form later in the day and continue into the night.

“I’m going to think it will probably be from the 5 or 6 o’clock hour onwards through to 10 or 11 o’clock tonight, and then it may continue through much of the overnight period if it does start to develop,” he said.

Proctor cautioned that while storms have not fully formed yet, once they organize, they could persist for several hours into the night.

The severe thunderstorm watch comes the day after a tornado touched down near Rossburn, MB, causing damage to the area. 

With files from Sylvia St. Cyr