Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (APR-UN-T)’s recent uptick in acquisition activity and its first-ever distribution bump “are a breath of fresh air for a stock that has taken an unfair hit from tariff concerns,” said Desjardins analyst Lorne Kalmar as he reiterated a “buy” rating after quarterly earnings.
Mr. Kalmar, who raised his price target to C$13 from C$12, said second quarter results were largely in line with expectations, and he found further reasons to be bullish thanks to future plans.
“We are also encouraged by management’s bullish acquisition outlook, in part due to the expanded opportunity set. Our forecast calls for about a 7% average annual FFOPU growth (a version of cash flow) through 2027, although there could be upside if acquisitions exceed our expectations,” he said.
APR announced its first distribution bump of 2.2%, effective August 2025, reflecting the board’s confidence in the business outlook. “While we had not modelled an increase previously, we expect it to become an annual occurrence (we model +2.2% in 2026/27),” said the analyst.
Meanwhile, Allied management said it has yet to see tariffs have any direct impact on its tenants. While the composition of new models sold could change, vehicle sales are expected to remain largely unaffected. Combined with strong used car sales, service revenue and dealer performance during previous down cycles, we have no concerns about tenants’ ability to pay rents,“ Mr. Kalmar said.
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Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho bumped up his price target on Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (CHE-UN-T) following a second quarter earnings beat, a raise in guidance for EBITDA and a new water treatment acquisition.
“We are hopeful that continued execution and a balanced capital allocation strategy, including aggressively buying back stock, should drive a valuation re-rate,” Mr. Ho told clients.
He raised his estimates and introduced his forecasts for 2027. That resulted in his price target going to C$16 from C15.50. He reiterated a “buy” rating.
“Our positive view is based on: (1) multiple chemicals in CHE’s portfolio having relatively recession-resistant attributes; (2) tremendous ultra-pure, water and hydrogen opportunities; and (3) consistent execution and a repaired balance sheet should restore investor confidence and warrant a valuation re-rate,” he said.
Elsewhere, Raymond James raised its target to C$16 from C$15.
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Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff lowered his price target on Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF-T) to 75 cents from 85 cents as maintenance downtime weighs on results for the forestry products firm.
Conifex reported second quarter earnings on Thursday after market close, posting negative EBITDA of $3.2 million vs. consensus of negative $3.6 million.
Mr. Swetlishoff believes that Conifex could emerge as a key beneficiary of Canada’s $1.25 billion support package for the forestry industry, with earmarked loan guarantees “potentially meaningful relative to the current market cap.”
“That said, there is risk for package benefits to be offset by “super duties” (i.e., higher than expected Sec 232 tariffs,” the analyst cautioned.
Meanwhile, he notes current trading levels remain well below his risk-adjusted net asset value estimate — with the market assigning negative value to Conifex’s lumber platform — and sit dramatically below tangible book value.
“We contend that Conifex maintains several positive attributes, including: 1) a high degree of timber self-sufficiency, 2) improved lumber sales realizations following the transition to high-value green timber harvesting, and 3) the cash flow diversification provided by its Bioenergy operations, balanced by 4) temporary single shift ops at the Mackenzie sawmill,” he said.
Mr. Swetlishoff is maintaining a “market perform” rating “while we assess how equilibrium lumber pricing settles out post-duty imposition.”
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At least two analysts cut their price targets on Bird Construction Inc (BDT-T) following a second quarter earnings miss and a cautious 2025 outlook.
CIBC trimmed its target price to C$33 from C$35 while TD Cowen went to C$31 from C$34.
TD analyst Michael Tupholme maintained a “buy” rating, commenting that he remains constructive on Bird’s long-term outlook. He believes the stock’s current trading level offers good value.
Bird’s second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $54.9 million, about 4% below consensus, as lower-than-expected revenue was partially offset by better-than-expected margins. Factors behind softer first half 2025 revenue are seen persisting into the second half of this year, with margins also expected to be under pressure.
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BMO analyst Fadi Chamoun downgraded CSX Corp. (CSX-Q) to “market perform” from “outperform” after the stock’s recent rally ignited by speculation of merger interest in the rail industry.
His price target remains at US$38.
Last month, reports circulated that Goldman Sachs was advising CSX on its merger options. CSX has not commented.
“With rail mergers becoming a major factor influencing short- to medium-term implications for stocks in the sector, we have considered a wide range of potential consolidation scenarios and their implications for investment cases,” the BMO analyst said. “While the instinct might be to favour the target in an M&A deal, we believe there is significant uncertainty surrounding key details of any potential deal involving CSX.”
“After a 20% appreciation in the stock since speculation about potential deal started, we now view the risk/reward profile as more balanced,” he said.
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Beacon analyst Russell Stanley initiated coverage on McCoy Global Inc. (MCB-T) with a “buy” rating and C$5.50 price target.
McCoy Global develops and sells equipment used for tubular running services in the oil and gas industry.
“While McCoy has a long history providing traditional TRS equipment, the company has developed a next generation product suite (smartProducts) that incorporates advanced sensors and software, enabling greater automation and reducing onsite labour requirements. These tools support significant improvements in operating efficiency/consistency, safety performance and data capture,” Mr. Stanley said in his initiation note.
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In other analyst actions:
TD Cowen cut its target target on Berkshire Hathaway, going to US$718,000.00 from US$727,000.00 on class A shares (BRK-A-N) and to US$479 from US$485 on class B shares (BRK-B-N).
Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE-T): Jefferies raises target price to C$25 from C$24
NGEX Minerals Ltd (NGEX-T): CIBC raises target price to C$23 from C$19
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T): Jefferies raises target price to C$57 from C$53
Wonderfi Technologies Inc (WNDR-T): Haywood Securities cuts to tender from buy
More to come