Eric Rosales
• Betting Analyst
27+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 11, 2026 , 10:02 AM ET
• 4 min read
Olivia Miles’ likely return gives Minnesota another offensive gear, while New York catches the Lynx at the wrong time amid a shaky stretch.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Minnesota Lynx guard Kayla McBride (21) celebrates.
Two of the WNBA’s heavy hitters go head-to-head today when the New York Liberty, tied for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, visit the Minnesota Lynx, tied for the best record in the league.
The Liberty are in flux right now, losing three of four, with the only win in that span coming against the Lynx.
Minnesota, meanwhile, just snapped a two-game slide and will likely have rookie star Olivia Miles back in the lineup. Miles’ return has me siding with the home team in my Liberty vs. Lynx predictions.
Read more of our WNBA picks before locking in your bets for Saturday’s slate.
Liberty vs Lynx prediction
Liberty vs Lynx best bet: Lynx -5.5 (-115)
The Minnesota Lynx are the WNBA’s most balanced team, ranking second in both scoring and points allowed.
The return of Olivia Miles only strengthens an offense that ranks second in field-goal percentage at 48.0% and first from three at 37.0%.
The Lynx have also covered in three straight home wins. The New York Liberty have struggled against elite defenses, averaging just 77.3 points in its last three losses to Top-7 scoring defenses, while Sabrina Ionescu is still working back to full form after missing time.
New York is catching the league leaders at just the wrong time.
I’d back the Lynx as favorites up to -7.5.
COVERS INTEL: How valuable is rookie Olivia Miles to the Lynx? Consider her on-off splits: Minnesota carries a lackluster -0.3 net rating when she’s off the floor, compared to a supernova-level +21.7 with her on it.
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Liberty vs Lynx same-game parlay
Veteran Breanna Stewart is on a scoring binge right now, averaging 30 points per game in her last three contests on an absurd 64.7% shooting from the field.
Her best game of that bunch was a season-best 36 points against the Lynx, and it marks the sixth time in the last 10 meetings with Minnesota that Stewart has topped 20 points.
Miles leads the Lynx in scoring at 18.5 points per game, and she’s consistently been at that 18+ point mark, hitting that level in nine of her last 12 games.
She was well on her way to the Over against the Liberty, needing just a couple of buckets before leaving the game in the fourth quarter. Miles doesn’t skip a beat in her return.
Liberty vs Lynx SGP
Lynx -5.5
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 points
Olivia Miles Over 17.5 points
Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record
Best bet: 8-8-0, +0.20 units
SGP: 1-14, -9.9 units
Player prop: 3-1, +1.96 units
Liberty vs Lynx odds
Spread: Liberty +5.5 | Lynx -5.5
Moneyline: Liberty +165 | Lynx -200
Over/Under: Over 173.5| Under 173.5
Liberty vs Lynx trend
Minnesota has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 day games against teams with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Lynx
Location
Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Tip-off
1:00 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
Liberty vs Lynx latest injuries
Liberty: Leonie Fiebich (Questionable), Satou Sabally (Questionable), Rebecca Allen (Questionable).
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (OUT), Emma Cechova (OUT), Olivia Miles (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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