“The housing market is continuing to look K-shaped, and we retain our view that it will, in aggregate, remain relatively dormant over 2026,” Tanuvasa said.
Westpac NZ’s Michael Gordon reached a similar conclusion, noting the REINZ House Price Index fell 0.3% for the month and 0.8% annually, with prices “more or less sideways for the last three years, though with some marked distinctions across regions” — Wellington and Auckland seeing the largest declines, while “regions with stronger links to agriculture and tourism such as Canterbury and Otago have seen prices continue to set new highs.”
Election and rate uncertainty shaping buyer behaviour
Ryley said a possible July official cash rate increase, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and the approaching general election all weighed on sentiment during June, with some buyers bringing forward purchasing decisions ahead of the OCR announcement while others adopted a more cautious approach.
That uncertainty has since been resolved — the RBNZ lifted the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 8 July, its first hike in three years, with most bank economists expecting the rate to reach around 3.00% by year-end.
REINZ’s regional commentary echoed the election theme repeatedly, with agents in multiple regions — including Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury, and Otago — describing a “wait and see” approach among buyers and vendors ahead of November’s vote.