Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report said the deceleration was led by a decline in gasoline prices, which reflected the removal of the consumer carbon priceTijana Martin/The Canadian Press
Canada’s inflation rate fell to 1.7 per cent in July, slowing slightly more than expected and easing some fears about sticky price growth.
Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday said the deceleration was led by a decline in gasoline prices, which reflected the removal of the consumer carbon price.
Meanwhile, grocery prices rose at a faster pace of 3.4 per cent annually and shelter costs increased by 3 per cent.
Financial markets reacted to the latest inflation data by increasing the odds of an interest rate cut in September to 36 per cent from 26 per cent the day before, according to data from Bloomberg.
“An easing in inflationary pressures during July means that we have successfully cleared one obstacle on the path towards a potential September interest rate cut,” said CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham in a client note.
The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate steady during its last three announcements at 2.75 per cent, noting the economy has held up relatively well despite U.S. tariffs.
However, the central bank has left the door open to rate cuts if the economy stalls and inflation remains at bay. Its recent summary of deliberations detailing discussions ahead of its July interest rate decision suggests that members of the governing council are split on whether more relief is needed.
To gauge inflationary pressures, the Bank of Canada keeps a close eye on its preferred core measures of inflation, which did not ease in July as they continued to hover around 3 per cent.
However, BMO chief economist Douglas Porter noted that the three-month trend for those measures has eased to 2.4 per cent.
“If that more recent pace in core is maintained, and the economy remains soft, we believe that will eventually set the stage for BoC cuts,” Mr. Porter said in a client note.