With the NFL campaign around the corner, fantasy football draft season is upon us.
It’s difficult to sink a fantasy season in the first two rounds of the draft, where consensus rankings tend to dictate the action for managers. The real strategy exists in the margins.
With that in mind, we’re looking at four interesting offences — two from each conference — that contain both potential league winners and draft traps this year.
(ADP courtesy of Fantasy Pros. All projections assume a 12-team league with a half-point-per-reception format.)
Bears’ busy off-season brings fantasy questions
Even with all the roster moves, the Chicago Bears’ hiring of offensive guru Ben Johnson as their new head coach may have been the biggest splash of the off-season. During his time as offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, Johnson often relied on quarterback Jared Goff to read defences and execute timing routes with impeccable precision, but even if he dials back on those responsibilities for sophomore Caleb Williams, there’s still potential for the Bears’ offence to produce fantasy gold in 2025.
The best place for fantasy managers to start scouting is the wide receiver room. Veteran Keenan Allen returned to the Los Angeles Chargers this summer, subsequently vacating 121 targets for a suddenly young receiving group featuring D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden III.
Recent history suggests Moore is set up to thrive this year. Johnson schemed the Lions to No. 1 in yards after catch (YAC) in 2024. Moore was a specialist with the ball in his hands for the Bears last season, finishing fifth among all players in YAC with 596 yards.
After the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron in Week 10 last year, Moore’s numbers grew. He averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game through the remainder of last season, jumping to a WR14 value in 2024. He is currently ranked as WR20 and viewed as a potential fourth-rounder with an average draft position of 46.
Odunze and Burden are fun secondary options, but while Johnson’s offence in Detroit produced a top-10 fantasy receiver in each of his three seasons with his harnessing of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s elite skillset, the play-caller’s schemes rarely produced more than one viable fantasy option at receiver. Lions wideout Jameson Williams’ 2024 breakout was the first time Johnson had a second pass-catcher finish in the top 20 in terms of fantasy production.
Odunze will either be the odd man out in Johnson’s offence, or carve out a new role rarely implemented by the play-caller. At six-foot-three, Odunze is similar in stature to depth options Johnson has used in the past, like Tim Patrick (six-foot-five) and Josh Reynolds (six-foot-three). Kalif Raymond, who is listed at five-foot-eight, is the only receiver outside of St. Brown who has consistently played a prominent supporting role in each of Johnson’s three seasons as offensive coordinator in Detroit. Until Williams’ surprise campaign in 2024, Raymond also finished in the top three on the team for targets.
This suggests Burden, the Bears’ second-round pick this spring, better fits the quick-slot archetype that Johnson covets. Johnson has a history of targeting players in the draft and quickly putting them in position to succeed — think tight end Sam LaPorta, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and Williams. Odunze should be available in the seventh round as WR35, but Burden is projected in rounds 12-13 as WR53, and might be the more intriguing option as one of Johnson’s first picks in Chicago.
Johnson also selected tight end Colston Loveland with the No.10 overall pick to pair him with teammate Cole Kmet. Both players can co-exist in Johnson’s scheme, but Loveland’s prominent draft position likely means he’ll play an important role, even if it’s as a backup during the early weeks of the season. Both Loveland and Kmet received snaps with the starters in their 38-0 pre-season win against the Bills on Sunday. Loveland is worth taking a flyer on if he falls to the double-digit rounds with his ADP of 115 as the TE12.
And then there’s the running back group. Johnson reunites with former Lion D’Andre Swift after the two worked together in Detroit in 2022. History shows Johnson not only prefers a running back committee but can also support a platoon in fantasy — his heavy usage of Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit the last two years saw both finish in the top 14 for running back fantasy points. Even with Roschon Johnson looming as the Bears’ backup running back, Swift has an ADP of 59 and should safely return value as the RB23. Confidently target Swift late in round five.
Navigating the AFC’s most explosive offences
The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens finished as the top-scoring offences in the AFC last season, trailing only the Lions for the top spot in the league. Both teams’ depth charts remain largely intact, and while Buffalo and Baltimore are projected to again be among the elite in 2025, sifting through both rosters brings challenges.
The part of the equation that’s easiest to solve begins with their respective starting quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Allen finished second among QBs in fantasy points per game with 22.7, while Jackson led the way with 25.6 points. Spending an early pick on a quarterback would normally be viewed as imprudent, especially as the higher-tier receivers and running backs drop off at the end of round four. But these signal-callers are strong bets to return value in 2025, and it reflects in the price drafters are willing to pay, with Jackson (ADP 21) and Allen (ADP 23) typically going well before most of their QB peers.
Ravens running back Derrick Henry continued to fight off wear-and-tear concerns and finished as the RB3 last year, but at 31, age and the possibility of an eventual decline can’t be ignored, and he’s appropriately projected to go near the end of the first round (ADP 12).
Bills running back James Cook secured a new contract on Aug. 13, but fantasy owners should consider what the front office wrestled with during negotiations. Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024 after only running for two scores in each of his first two seasons. The dramatic touchdown spike catapulted Cook to an RB8 finish, but it also sets him up as a likely regression candidate in 2025. Cook is currently ranked as RB13 and typically goes in the middle of round three, which is fair considering the volatile swing in his numbers.
Most of the passing options these two teams rely on are priced where they should be, fantasy-wise, mainly due to the lack of a true alpha receiver on either squad. But the best value may be at the tight end position.
After shouldering much of the blame for the Ravens’ playoff loss again Buffalo last January, tight end Mark Andrews could be poised for a redemption season.
Fellow tight end Isaiah Likely underwent foot surgery in July and has missed most of training camp. Even when healthy, Likely was a secondary option behind Andrews during the home stretch of the regular season. In the Ravens’ final five contests, Andrews outscored Likely in points per game and targets.
Andrews continues to be one of Jackson’s favourite targets. When targeting Andrews last season, the Ravens QB recorded 11 touchdowns and a 140.9 passer rating. Andrews is projected as the seventh tight end off draft boards, typically in the seventh round, but could return top-three value.
And then there’s Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. The 2023 first-rounder burned drafters who selected him in rounds five to six last season, but he may be primed to make up for it this year. Kincaid battled numerous injuries throughout 2024. Allen made an intentional effort to get Kincaid the ball, as evidenced by an 18.6 per cent target share (good for 11th among tight ends league-wide).
For drafters who miss out on top tight end options in Las Vegas Raiders’ Brock Bowers and Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride, or those who prefer to wait at the position, Kincaid is the classic ‘buy-low’ late-round dart throw. Kincaid tends to be the 13th tight end selected (ADP 119). Players like Jonnu Smith (Pittsburgh Steelers), Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders), and Tucker Kraft (Green Bay Packers) all finished in the top ten for tight ends last season despite being drafted outside of the top-100.
Does Dallas have a new fantasy football star?
When the Dallas Cowboys promoted coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to head coach in the off-season, it signalled not only a commitment to the team’s offensive philosophy but also a willingness to further build around it.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to return from a hamstring injury that limited him to just eight appearances last season. When healthy, Prescott yields fantasy results. The 32-year-old has played in at least 16 games a total of six times in his career, and finished as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in five of those six seasons, including a QB2 finish in 2019 and a QB3 result in 2023. Prescott is a potential steal in the later rounds (ADP 97) and will outperform his status as QB12 if he remains healthy.
Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb averaged 15.6 points in the seven complete games Prescott played last season. That number had Lamb on pace to tie Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson for WR3. He’s a must-draft in the first round, but the most exciting option on the Cowboys may end up being Lamb’s new teammate, George Pickens.
Pickens leaves a desolate wasteland of an offence in Pittsburgh and projects to be a key cog in a dynamic passing attack in Dallas. The Steelers had the fourth fewest passing attempts during the last two seasons, while the Cowboys finished in the top eight during the same stretch, including third in 2024.
Lamb has often thrived during his career playing in the slot, but Schottenheimer doesn’t plan on having Pickens exclusively lining up outside, telling reporters last month Lamb and Pickens “need to be interchangeable.”
Pickens finished as WR42 last season and has never finished higher than WR26 in his career. He’s currently WR29 with an ADP of 66, projecting him to be available in the sixth round of most fantasy drafts.