The peloton is getting closer and closer to the end of the Tour de France, but there are some very tough stages ahead.
The Alps finally arrive in earnest at the Tour de France on Thursday, but don’t expect the general classification contenders to go all-in just yet. (Probably. Maybe. Who knows anymore, really?)
Stage 18 covers 185.2 km from Voiron to Orcières-Merlette, with 3,800 metres of climbing, but compared to what’s waiting on Friday and Saturday, it’s almost a warm-up. I mean, a helluva warm-up, but it’s still not as brutal as what is coming up.
If the GC riders are content to let a move go, it could make it the perfect day for the breakaway.
Stage 18 of the Tour de France
The route opens with two steady climbs, the Col d’Engins (11.4 km at 5.4 per cent) and the Côte de Monteynard (9.7 km at 5.2 per cent), before a long rolling section toward the final ascent. The climb to Orcières-Merlette is 7.1 km at 6.8 per cent, difficult enough to reward the strongest climbers, but not steep enough to force major gaps between the Tour’s top contenders.
With the race entering its final mountain block, Tadej Pogačar and the other GC favourites may be content to let a strong escape go clear while saving their legs for the tougher summit finishes that follow. But anyone who wants to be up there still needs to be at the front on those climbs.
If that’s how the stage unfolds, expect riders like Richard Carapaz or Ben Healy to be going for a win. They have been aggressive throughout this Tour and have repeatedly found the right breakaway without yet getting the result they wanted. That could change today.
The GC riders
The last time the Tour finished at Orcières-Merlette, in 2020, Primož Roglič beat his compatriot, Tadej Pogačar, in a sprint between the favourites. Six years later, the script looks very different. Unless someone launches an unexpected GC attack, Stage 18 has all the ingredients for the breakaway to finally cash in before the race heads into its decisive Alpine showdown.
The summit finish is still tough, though, so even if a break is up the road, there will be a selection.
Whether the guys going for the overall will be content to roll in together and simply sprint for it, or if someone goes on the offensive, remains to be seen. Does Pogi need to do a little opener to remind everyone who is boss? Or will he be OK if someone who is lower down in the standings makes a move?
Although yellow is pretty much wrapped up, unless the world champ has bad luck or bad legs (the latter seems more and more unlikely, even if he is woken up in the middle of the night), the fight for the podium—between French hope Paul Seixas and Pogačar’s teammate Isaac del Toro—is definitely alive. Double Olympic champ and double stage winner Remco Evenepoel has a considerable buffer in second place, but he has had bad days before in the mountains, so he will have to be in fine form over the next few days.
What’s next at the Tour
Friday ends in Alpe d’Huez and should be decisive. Saturday is hardly a walk in the park, either. Sunday, the boys finally make it to Paris—although remember, like last year, it’s not the 50 km/h+ ride around the Champs-Élysées. They will go over Montmartre, effectively shutting down the sprinters’ chances of a stage.
Coverage is on FloBikes.com, and you can check back on Canadian Cycling Magazine for a full report after.
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