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Michael Burry is warning about a market collision: rising oil prices, an artificial intelligence debt binge and mounting pressure in long-duration Treasuries.

“Watch the long bonds,” Burry wrote on X Thursday. He cited AI’s “debt explosion,” rising inflation volatility, a shaky Treasury basis trade and oil returning near $100. He concluded: “Not sure how much longer PE and PC can hold their breath,” apparently referring to private equity and private credit markets.

Watch the long bonds. Treasuries pressured by AI’s debt explosion, rising inflation vol, (per the great chart from @Bloomberg‘s Simon White). Basis Trade’s shaky state, #oil back near 100, many factors, many charts. Not sure how much longer PE and PC can hold their breath. pic.twitter.com/QjohxACvIs

— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) July 23, 2026

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Private equity and private credit, sectors that flourished when borrowing costs were low, could be particularly vulnerable to a sharp increase in inflation and interest rates. Higher bond-market yields could expose weak underwriting and debt structured for cheaper money.

That dynamic puts alternative-asset managers Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. in focus. Both have private-equity and credit operations exposed to refinancing conditions, borrower health and asset valuations.

Stubbornly High Yields Echo 2007

The chart shared by Burry shows the 30-year Treasury yield has traded above 5% for 27 days in 2026. That compares with six days in 2025 and seven in 2023. The last comparable stretch came in 2007, in the run-up to the global financial crisis, when the yield spent 50 days above that threshold.

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The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF offers a liquid proxy for long-duration government bonds and generally falls when long-term yields rise.

AI spending adds another strain. Technology companies are tapping debt markets to finance data centers, chips, power and cooling. That issuance competes with heavy Treasury supply.

Oracle Corp., a cloud and data-center spender, offers an equity-market gauge of the debt-funded AI buildout. Its financing shows the AI race is spilling into credit markets.

Bloomberg columnist Simon White argued that debt-fueled AI investment has driven long-term borrowing costs toward levels unseen since the financial crisis. A 5% risk-free rate could challenge projects dependent on distant, uncertain cash flows.

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The Dangers of $100 Oil

Oil adds an inflationary accelerant. Crude near $100 threatens transportation, manufacturing and costs while complicating the case for Federal Reserve easing. The United States Oil Fund LP provides a market proxy for crude-price swings.

Burry also flagged the Treasury basis trade, a leveraged strategy exploiting small pricing gaps between cash Treasuries and futures. Sudden volatility or tighter financing can force rapid deleveraging, amplifying moves in the Treasury market.

His message is less a precise crash call than a map of interconnected stress. Elevated oil and rising long yields could squeeze private-market borrowers as AI financing absorbs more capital.

For investors, the 30-year yield may rival the next AI earnings beat. Burry suggests bonds could determine how long the rally lasts.

Image created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

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Fundrise

Private real estate and private credit can add income and stability to a stock-heavy portfolio. Fundrise offers access to diversified private real estate and credit strategies through an easy-to-use platform, with professionally managed portfolios designed to generate passive income and long-term growth.

Mode Mobile

Mode Mobile is changing the way people interact with their phones by letting users earn money from the same apps and activities they already use every day. Instead of platforms keeping all the advertising revenue, Mode Mobile shares a portion back with users who engage with content, play games, and scroll on their devices. Named one of Deloitte’s fastest-growing software companies in North America, the company has built a large beta user base and is scaling a model that turns everyday smartphone usage into a potential income stream. 

EquityMultiple 

For accredited investors looking beyond stocks and bonds, EquityMultiple provides access to vetted commercial real estate deals starting at $5,000, with only ~5% of opportunities passing their due diligence process.

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