On Tuesday, the WNBA will resume its largest season yet, with each team having between 14 and 18 games remaining on its regular season schedule. Then, the top eight teams among the 15, regardless of conference, will advance to the playoffs, which will begin on September 27. The first round will be a best-of-three format, the semifinals a best-of-five, and the Finals best-of-seven.

By this point, the top eight have more or less separated themselves, as the eighth-seeded Washington Mystics have a 3.5-game lead on the ninth-seeded Portland Fire and a four-game margin over the Toronto Tempo and the Los Angeles Sparks. Washington’s spot in the tournament isn’t anywhere near guaranteed, but with the playoff field relatively unlikely to change, it’s not too early to look ahead at the postseason.

Current WNBA Championship Odds

As it stands, the Minnesota Lynx — who have the WNBA’s best record at 22-6 — are +115 favorites to win the WNBA title at DraftKings Sportsbook, with last year’s winners, the Las Vegas Aces, at +350. The 2024 title-winning New York Liberty (+700) and the Golden State Valkyries (+800), a surprise second seed so far, are the only other teams with better than 10/1 odds to ultimately lift the trophy. Among the likely playoff teams, the Mystics are by far the biggest long-shot, as they’re tied with the Sparks, who aren’t even in the playoff picture.

WNBA Champion prediction, pick

Any discussion of the WNBA playoffs has to begin with the Lynx, who rank third in offensive rating, second in defensive rating, and first in net rating by 3.1 points per 100 possessions (a far bigger gap than that between the second-ranked Indiana Fever and the sixth-ranked Atlanta Dream). At one point point early in the season, Minnesota had six wins by at least 20 points in the span of 10 games, and there’s reason to believe that the Lynx could get better. They had a trio of All-Stars in Courtney Williams, Natasha Howard, and rookie Olivia Miles, and two-time consecutive MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier only made her return from bilateral ankle surgery in the final game before the All-Star break.

With Collier, Minnesota is a complete team. Virtually the Lynx’s only weakness this season has been their 63.3% assist percentage, the second-worst mark league-wide, but last season, they posted an assist percentage 10.1 percentage points higher with Collier on the floor. Though passing isn’t necessarily the strength of Collier’s game, she’s so efficient (a 57.9% effective field goal percentage last season) that she can finish off her teammates’ passes more effectively than just about anyone else on the roster, and her gravity draws double-teams and gives her teammates easier looks. Miles, for instance, shot just 43.2% across her last nine games before the All-Star break, but Collier’s return should take much of the defensive attention away from her. Minnesota has also drawn the league’s fewest fouls this season, but Collier ranked eighth in free throw attempts per game last season.

The best team doesn’t always win, though. The Lynx were even more dominant during the regular season in 2025, leading the league in offensive, defensive, and net rating, but they were upset by the Phoenix Mercury in the semifinals and were down 2-1 when Collier suffered her ankle injury. In fact, since the introduction of the bye-less playoff format in 2022, the team with the best net rating has only gone on to win the Finals twice. As dominant as Minnesota has been, its wins have been far less lopsided as of late. The Lynx have also allowed more three-point attempts than any other team, so they could be beaten by a lights-out shooting performance.

What factors are important in determining a champion?

Since the new playoff format was introduced, the average champion has had an offensive rating rank of 1.25 and an average defensive rating rank of 4.75. Under the old format, which featured single elimination in the first and second rounds and double byes for the top two teams to the semifinals, offense was also relatively more important. That would suggest that a team like the Fever (+1800), who have the league’s best offense but just its seventh-best defense, are more likely to win a title than the Valkyries, who have the best defense but just the eighth-best offense. Indiana could certainly take advantage of Minnesota’s willingness to let opponents fire away from deep, as it’s been the most accurate three-point shooting team this season.

Each of the past 10 WNBA champions, with the exception of the 2021 Chicago Sky, had an All-WNBA First Team player on their roster, and while the All-WNBA Teams won’t be released until the end of the season, at least one of Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell seems highly likely to make it alongside Wilson and Paige Bueckers, who seem like guarantees. Clark ranks fifth in scoring and second in assists per game, while Mitchell ranks fourth in scoring and third in three-pointers made per game. Three of the last four champions have had at least three All-Stars, and Mitchell, Clark, and Aliyah Boston all earned that honor this season. The Lynx, Liberty, Atlanta Dream, and Fever were the four teams with three All-Stars.

Indiana hasn’t yet faced Minnesota this season, but it’s beaten the Aces in both of the teams’ matchups so far and earned a split with New York. While the Fever have lost to Golden State twice in three matchups, one of those defeats came right down to the wire, and I’m not sure the Valkyries have the requisite playoff experience to withstand a long battle of attrition. Indiana does, having pushed Las Vegas to the brink without Clark last season, and despite her occasional propensity for turnovers, Clark has made the Fever better in two of her three seasons. Clark also led Iowa to back-to-back National Championship Games, so she clearly has winning DNA.

In a vacuum, the Lynx are the favorites for a reason, but given the odds, Indiana is my favorite bet. Wilson is good enough to single-handedly carry the Aces to victory, but their relative inability to shoot the three-ball and struggles to draw fouls could prove problematic in a hypothetical matchup against Minnesota or the Fever. The Liberty might have the most raw talent, as they added three-time All-Star Satou Sabally to a core that already featured former MVP’s Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, but I have plenty of concerns about Sabrina Ionescu’s efficiency, injury concerns, and on-off impact. Golden State has no offensive interior game to speak of, and Angel Reese’s finishing could prove problematic for Atlanta in a playoff setting. It’s been a tumultuous couple of seasons for Clark, but she has the supporting cast to walk away a champion.

Best Bet: Indiana Fever Champion (+1800)