There is a line of thinking in NASCAR Cup Series garage areas that the eventual series champion will come from the five drivers at the top of the standings entering the Chase.
Trace that thought to the numbers. The driver earning the top seed—at this point, Denny Hamlin has a pretty good shot at that spot—will open the Chase with 2,100 points. The sixth-place driver will start with 2,050. Of course, a 50-point deficit is not insurmountable over a 10-race stretch, but there will be nine other drivers scrambling for those points, so it’s not a one-on-one scenario.
The second-place driver will open the Chase with 2,075 points, 25 behind the leader. There are those who will argue that the regular-season “champion” should be awarded a better head start in the Chase, and that argument carries a certain validity. But one of NASCAR’s key goals is attempting to keep things close, so the concept of the point leader running away and hiding three or four races into the Chase is not one the powers-that-be or their “partners” would appreciate.
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Denny Hamlin currently has the points lead.
If the top five drivers indeed will have much easier roads to the championship than the remainder of the Chase field, there should be quite a scramble over the final four races of the regular season for final arrival in those positions. With the series taking a rare rest this weekend, there’s time for individuals in the teams’ Black Ops with Calculators departments to examine every detail.
As matters currently stand, Hamlin has an 84-point lead over Tyler Reddick for first place. Ryan Blaney is third, 120 points behind, and Ty Gibbs checks in fourth, 135 back.
Then there’s a significant drop to fifth-place Carson Hocevar, he of the rising star and middle finger. And that’s where the logjam begins.
There is a separation of only 29 points from Hocevar in fifth to Christopher Bell in 10th. Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, and Chris Buescher sit between Hocevar and Bell.
Chances are there will be considerable movement in that group over the final four regular-season races, which will be contested over a variety of landscapes—Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and a potentially spectacular finale at Daytona International Speedway.
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Kyle Larson is winless so far this season.
It’s worth noting, by the way, that three members of the top 10—Larson, Buescher, and Bell—still have no wins this season, while three drivers below them in points—Daniel Suarez, Joey Logano, and Shane van Gisbergen—have reached victory lane. And there’s part-timer Corey Heim, who carries two wins and a whole story unto himself.
As drivers wander across various continents and islands with pristine beaches during this off week, Hamlin finds himself in the unusual position of clear championship favorite. His odds generally stand at +170, while those chasing him are no better than +380. Oddsmakers, of course, are quite aware that the Cup championship is something that Hamlin has never won, but his consistent strength this year, matched with the new Chase format that eliminates the wild nature of the final race, clearly puts him at the top of the field.
How the scramble behind him resolves itself in the month ahead remains to be seen.
Mike Hembree has covered auto racing for numerous media outlets, including USA Today, NASCAR Scene, NBC Sports, The Greenville News and the SPEED Channel. He has been roaming garage areas and pit roads for decades (although the persistent rumor that he covered the first Indianapolis 500 is not true). Winner of numerous motorsports and other media awards, he also has covered virtually every other major sport. He lives near Gaffney, South Carolina and can be convinced to attend Bruce Springsteen concerts if you have tickets.