The 2026 Formula 1 silly season promised chaos, with as many as 17 drivers out of contract at the start of the season.
At the halfway mark, the entire spectacle has boiled down to two drivers who, between them, hold all the cards — and are holding up the rest of the field.
Though both are multiple world champions, they occupy totally different parts of the grid.
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The first is Max Verstappen, who has alternatively flirted with changing teams and quitting the sport.
The other is Fernando Alonso, who appears torn between his desire to compete and his total distaste for modern Formula 1 and the dire state of his Aston Martin car.
Their decisions could influence the thinking of almost every other out-of-contract driver this season, albeit for different reasons.
Verstappen’s frontrunning seat is one almost any driver would want, and many drivers will be waiting until they know for sure what the Dutchman is doing before committing elsewhere.
Alonso’s seat isn’t so coveted. Instead it could be a case of how much Aston Martin is willing to offer to dislodge a driver from elsewhere and trigger the dominoes to fall.
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MAX IN THE MIDDLE
Verstappen is a four-time champion and the sport’s top driver, a position that gives him considerable influence to open doors as he pleases.
But as this season has dragged on, it’s becoming clear that he may have overplayed his hand — assuming his goal is to exit Red Bull Racing in favour of a better seat.
This saga has been rolling for more than a year.
It began early last season, when it was clear Verstappen would struggle to retain his drivers title in the face of a surging McLaren while his own team began a steep decline.
Rumours of an exit clause in Verstappen’s contract began to circulate. If he were outside the top three in the championship at the mid-season break, he’d be free to join a rival team.
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff was on the case, having long ago felt that the Dutchman had evaded his grasp as a junior.
George Russell took the negotiations public given Wolff’s Verstappen interest was stalling his own deal in a shrewd bit of public politics. Ironically Russell’s good form was putting him in contention for third at Verstappen’s expense, which could have created the circumstances for his own demise.
A poor run of form for Mercedes heading into the break prevented that from happening, however, and Verstappen confirmed at the Hungarian Grand Prix that he would be sticking with the team.
By then Christian Horner had been dismissed, and new boss Laurent Mekies, and engineer by trade, played a role in hauling Red Bull Racing back into contention late in the season.
It came at the expense of competitiveness this year, however, with Red Bull Racing starting 2026 in much worse shape than it started 2025.
Verstappen’s exit clause is now active, having required only that he finish the first half of the campaign outside the top two. He’s sixth and 110 points off the lead.
Will he pull the trigger?
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WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES?
Verstappen’s problem is that what last year looked like an easy Mercedes off-ramp — with him replacing Russell and the Briton taking his Red Bull Racing seat — no longer appears available.
Though both Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli are nominally on deals that expire this season, paddock speculation suggests Mercedes has taken up options on both for next season — unsurprising given Antonelli leads the title and Russell is the season’s only other multiple race winner.
It was around that time that we began hearing rumours that Verstappen could be negotiating his way into a McLaren seat. Oscar Piastri — under contract for at least another two seasons but not the reigning champion — would likely have been the driver to have made way, with the Australian then completing a straight swap into Red Bull Racing.
But sources close to Piastri have denied there’s any risk to his seat, and McLaren have also denied the rumours, which have since cooled.
Ferrari has already re-signed Charles Leclerc, who wasn’t out of contract anyway, while Lewis Hamilton says he’s still contracted beyond the end of this season.
That’s every other frontrunning team accounted for — and though the idea of Verstappen taking a punt on a midfield squad is appealing, it’s painfully unlikely if Red Bull Racing’s massive budget, enormous capacity and extremely recent title-winning history isn’t enough to keep him.
The alternative, of course, is that Verstappen quits the sport, as he’s threatened to do at various times this season.
The Dutchman has made no secret of his hatred of the 2026 engine regulations. With four titles already to his name and having long said he’s here for a good time, not a long time, other motorsport challenges appear to be calling his name.
If that were to happen and if Red Bull Racing were to fail to pry either Russell or Piastri from their teams as his replacement, either Arvid Lindblad or Liam Lawson could get the nod for a promotion from Racing Bulls.
Both are performing strongly, and with Isack Hadjar also in good form in the second seat, Red Bull Racing could still be confident in fielding a high-quality line-up, even if it were one that lacked star power.
There is a left-field alternative, however, with Sky Sports reporting that Oliver Bearman is on the team’s wishlist of potential replacements.
Bearman, a Ferrari driver on secondment to Haas, is out of contract this season.
The Briton is in a somewhat awkward position, his path to the front of the field reliant on Hamilton retiring, which the seven-time champion has regularly suggested won’t be any time soon.
“It’s quite flattering to hear things like that, with a team like Red Bull who are incredibly successful,” he said last month, though he reiterated that his goal was to race for Ferrari.
But whether Verstappen really could quit F1 remains up for debate, the Dutchman having changed his tune slightly since the sport agreed to water down the hybrid components of the engine over the next two years, while the FIA also seems committed to returning F1 to V8 engines with limited hybrid input as soon as 2030.
“I am mentally just adjusting to it and trying to make the best out of it, even though it’s not what I love to do in Formula 1,“ Verstappen said late last month.
“But I could also just sit at home and drive nothing, and that also doesn’t do anything, so I will just try my best.”
You’re a long time retired — perhaps something Verstappen has contemplated as the moment approaches for rubber to hit the road on a decision.
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ALONSO: BETWEEN ROCK AND HARD PLACE
Alonso might also be thinking deeply on the significance of permanent F1 retirement during the mid-season break, having already quit the sport once and returned after just two years on the sidelines.
His comeback has been largely unsuccessful thanks to uncompetitive machinery. Though he’s added nine podiums to his tally since 2021, victory has been elusive, never mind a third world title.
Remarkably the evergreen two-time champion has now had as many winless seasons in the sport as he’s had winning ones since claiming his first victory in 2003.
Aston Martin is the final roll of the dice, and on paper it was a calculated move.
Owner Lawrence Stroll’s deep pockets have delivered state-of-the-art facilities and high-calibre personnel, including Adrian Newey, the legendary title-winning designer whose cars obstructed Alonso’s title-winning ambitions in 2010–13.
Combined with the championship-winning works Honda engine backing, this year could have finally put him on course for the long-awaited victory 33 to end his career on a high.
Instead it’s been almost unmitigated disaster.
Aston Martin has been the slowest team on average this season, behind even newcomer Cadillac.
Its deficit has been mechanical, aerodynamic and engine-related, a holy trinity of disaster.
Alonso had said last year that he would find it hard to walk away from Aston Martin if he didn’t feel like it was on the right competitive trajectory, but he could never have expected it to be this bad.
Now the question he’s mulling is of a different kind.
Does he really want another year of racing no-one off the back of the field under a regulation set that he despises?
But then the complication to his thinking came last time out in Hungary.
Aston Martin bet its season on a big upgrade package in Budapest. The instant gain was worth around a second — and there’s more to come at the next two rounds, plus a new Honda engine.
The complexion has changed at the critical moment.
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WHO NEEDS WHOM MORE?
Despite the weightiness of a retirement decision, the call is arguable more consequential for Aston Martin than for Alonso.
Aston Martin needs Alonso more than Alonso needs to race in Formula 1.
“Fernando is an amazing driver,” said team boss Newey. “He brings huge amounts to the team both in his feedback and his ability, so for us of course it’s important [to keep him].
“I’m pretty confident that Fernando is enjoying his time with us and that we will continue with our relationship.”
It’s unclear how influential the team can be in the decision, however.
Though Alonso has said a good weekend in Hungary would make things easier, he’s also said he has to feel comfortable committing to another season of these regulations. That will form some part of his thinking over the mid-season break.
Alonso has at least ruled out another last-ditch team change, but even losing the Spaniard to retirement would be a blow to Aston Martin’s prestige as well as its quality, with Lance Stroll not nearly on Alonso’s level.
That’s particularly true given the team has far less pulling power in the driver market than it did even just last year owing to its massive dive down the championship table.
But the team’s optimistic rise in Hungary may have moved the needle somewhat — and you can understand why given the two names connected to Alonso’s seat.
Carlos Sainz has been notably unimpressed with Williams’s lack of form this season after team boss Jame Vowles built expectations that 2026 would be the year the historic marque took a big step up. After finishing a comfortable fifth in last year’s championship, it’s down to ninth this season with just 11 points, and sounds coming out of the team are to not expect any significant improvement this season.
Vowles is saying all the right things to try to contextualise the slide, but it’s undeniable that faith in the team’s trajectory has been shaken.
Sainz, a Ferrari race winner, might see more upside in big-spending Aston Martin.
Alternatively, there have been quiet rumours that Sergio Pérez could return to the former Force India and Racing Point team with which he spent almost half of his career.
Pérez has been strong in his comeback season with Cadillac and has long treated his return as a chance to make a point about his career and recontextualise his Red Bull Racing axing, and Aston Martin would likely give him a chance to fight for bigger results sooner than his brand-new American team.
If neither can be convinced, Aston Martin cannot choose but must beg — including drivers deemed surplus to requirements elsewhere.
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WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE FIELD?
The driver under the most pressure at this stage of the season is Esteban Ocon, who has underperformed next to the relatively inexperienced Bearman at Haas.
Three drivers loom as potential replacements.
Yuki Tsunoda is Red Bull Racing’s reserve driver after being dropped by the team last season. Haas major sponsor Toyota is believed to want a Japanese driver in the mix, and Tsunoda’s good reputation prior to his RBR disaster shouldn’t be so easily forgotten.
Reigning Formula 2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli has already undertaken some private testing with Haas despite being the McLaren reserve driver and is also on the list, as is Ferrari development driver Rafael Câmara.
Drivers out of contract, midfield
Racing Bulls: Liam Lawson, Arvid Lindblad
Alpine: Franco Colapinto
Haas: Esteban Ocon, Oliver Bearman
Audi: Nico Hülkenberg, Gabriel Bortoleto
Williams: Alex Albon, Carlos Sainz
Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll
Cadillac: None
Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad could be under some pressure from Red Bull junior drive Nikola Tsolov, who leads the Formula 2 championship and won’t be able to contest the series again if he wins the title. Ironically this would be an easier situation to face if Verstappen were to quit.
Colapinto’s status at Alpine is hard to read, with the Argentine swinging between being obliterated by teammate Pierre Gasly and being a reasonably close match. His last two races were good ones, which is timely considering we’re fast approaching decision-making time. He’s also rumoured to be on Aston Martin’s post-Alonso hit list.
You get the sense both Williams drivers would entertain alternatives, including Alpine, which appears upwardly mobile again. Both have kept their options open so far this year.
Audi, meanwhile, is said to be closing in on retaining both drivers, with Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto closely matched and delivering well.
But no driver wants to move until they know for certain what Verstappen is doing.
And it could be that no driver has to move unless Alonso calls it quits.
Two drivers hold all the power this silly season.