Elena Rybakina spent much of Tuesday night with her back against the wall in her Toronto quarterfinal against Naomi Osaka. She was broken in the opening game, dropped the first set, fell behind by a break twice in the second and stood two points away from defeat in the tiebreak.
But the World No. 2 did what she has done all tournament. She fought. Rybakina clawed out of every deficit, dug even deeper to save four break points at 3-2 in the decider and stormed all the way back for a 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4 victory in 2 hours and 33 minutes to emphatically punch her ticket to the semifinals.
Toronto: Scores | Order of play | Draws
Awaiting her there is a not-so-familiar foe in Coco Gauff for what is set to be just their second WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz meeting. But in the fleeting hours of Tuesday night, all that mattered was the resolve Rybakina showed in her first-ever battle with Osaka.
“I was just trying to fight,” Rybakina said in her on-court interview. “The first game of the match was really tough because it cost me the set, and then in the second I was just trying to stay closer to the score, even if I’m losing. I’m super happy that I won this match.”
The victory sends Rybakina to her 14th WTA 1000 semifinal and third this season after previous trips to the last four in Indian Wells and Miami. It also marks her first win over Osaka, meaning she has now defeated nine of the past 10 players who have held the No. 1 ranking, with Ashleigh Barty (0-2) the lone exception.
Of course, it also strengthens her chances of becoming World No. 1 for the first time. Should she win the title Thursday, she would sit just a handful of points behind Sabalenka for the top spot.
But first, she’ll have to get through Gauff — a possibility only because she came from behind against Osaka. Here’s how that happened.
First set: Osaka cashes in on early break
On the flip side of Rybakina’s remarkable comeback is Osaka, who will be left wondering what could have been after controlling large stretches of the match.
She broke immediately in the opening game, converting her lone break point of the set. That proved enough. She saved three break points in the next game before consolidating for 2-0 and won 73% of her first-serve points to take the opener.
“It was just unlucky the first set. I lost my serve straightaway and then it was very difficult,” Rybakina said in her post-match press conference. “She served well. The mindset was trying to stay closer to the score, and then whatever happens, happens, and try to play aggressive when I have an opportunity.”
Rybakina kept it close, but her aggression cost her at times. She finished the set with 24 unforced errors.
Second set: Rybakina finds her footing with one foot out the door
Osaka again broke first, taking a 2-1 lead as Rybakina continued to misfire on her forehand. Naturally, it was a forehand winner that opened the door at 15-30 in the next game, and she broke back for 2-2.
After Osaka made it three consecutive breaks to lead 3-2 and consolidated for 4-2, Rybakina began to heat up. The unforced errors count kept rising — she finished with 72, her most in a match this season — but so did her first-serve percentage and winners tally. After breaking back for 4-4, she capped a run of three straight games with another forehand winner to hold for 5-4.
“We played many close games when she was serving. I was just trying to tell myself, ‘Start the point, just try to return, and if she hits a good serve, good job for her,'” Rybakina said. “So just keep going and try to take my serve.”
The set went to a tiebreak, seemingly favoring Osaka, who entered the day 6-2 in breakers this season compared to Rybakina’s 4-6 record. Osaka twice erased mini-breaks to level at 5-all with her serve upcoming, but Rybakina took the last two points and finished with a putaway at the net to steal the set and force a decider.
Third set: After one final escape, Rybakina finishes with a flurry
Osaka converted 3 of 7 break points in the match — and all four missed chances came while leading 3-2 in the final set. With a chance to put the match on ice, she watched Rybakina saved them one by one: Osaka forehand error, Rybakina forehand winner down the line, Rybakina backhand winner down the line, Osaka backhand error.
Two points later, a crosscourt forehand winner sealed the hold for 3-all. Those missed chances haunted Osaka immediately. She misfired on three straight forehands in the next game, and Rybakina broke for 4-3.
After Osaka held for 5-4, Rybakina closed the match in emphatic fashion: ace down the T, ace out wide, forehand winner, and after Osaka saved one match point, a 15th and final ace sealed the comeback.
“We work on the serve all the time. I started this tournament not good at all with too many double faults,” Rybakina said. “Even today I did quite a lot, I would say, in the first and second set. In the third my serve really improved. Because of the conditions, sometimes I lose the read. It’s important to put all the energy on the serve. We always try to adapt, to adjust to the conditions, so it’s always something we need to work on.”
Rybakina vs. Gauff Part II in Toronto
With the win comes the opportunity to face Gauff for just the second time. Their only previous meeting came four years ago — also in Toronto — with Gauff prevailing in three tight sets. For a while, it seemed they might never cross paths again, often falling just short of a rematch whenever they landed near each other in the draw.
Rybakina expects another battle.
Toronto: Gauff triumphs over Rybakina in 3-set rollercoaster
“She’s a great fighter. I know it’s going to be a very difficult match,” Rybakina said. “For me, it’s important to try to recover. If her serve gets going, it’s also not easy to return. I feel like the most important thing again is to focus on my serve, try to be focused, (take) opportunities whenever I have them, and (have) a lot of energy from the beginning.”
The winner will face either No. 7 seed Iga Swiatek or No. 9 seed Elina Svitolina in Thursday’s final.