Tropical Storm Lala is just short of hurricane strength as the storm slowly strengthens.
Conditions worsen for Hawaii as it tracks near the state this weekend, likely as a low-end Category 1 hurricane.
If Lala makes landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, it will be the first time the Big Island has been hit directly by a hurricane. Regardless of landfall, the storm will bring flooding rain, rough surf and hurricane-force winds.
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Tropical storm-force wind gusts are occurring on the Big Island and Maui, with more powerful gusts occurring at elevated locations.
A wind gust of 44 mph was reported at Kamuela while a wind gust of 38 mph was reported at Hilo, Hawaii.
A sustained wind of 46 mph and a gust to 69 mph were reported at Puuloa on the Big Island at an elevation of 3,366 feet. A wind gust of 40 mph was reported at the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu.
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A hurricane warning is in effect for the Big Island. Winds of 75 mph are expected there on Saturday, with gusts potentially exceeding 85 mph.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and for Oahu and Kauai County. Winds potentially gusting over 70 mph are not out of the question.
Tropical storm conditions have begun for Maui County, should begin on Oahu County beginning Saturday night and should begin in Kauai County on Sunday.
Current radar
Outer bands of Lala are ramping up on Saturday, impacting the Big Island. The first significant rain band moved through the Big Island, bringing 3-5 inches of rainfall in just 6 hours. A flood advisory was prompted in the affected area.
These bands can bring heavy rainfall capable of causing life-threatening flooding and landslides. The threat of flooding will increase as the storm approaches.
Where the system is now
Tropical Storm Lala is now less than 100 miles southeast of the South Point on The Big Island. Lala is moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph.
Tropical storm force gusts are already being measured on the Big Island and on the island of Maui, with hurricane conditions expected on the Big Island in the coming hours.
Lala is organizing, but remains a lopsided storm due to wind shear and dry air. Most of its strongest winds are located on the northern side of the tropical storm, which could bring more of the storm’s impacts over the islands.
(MORE: What these tropical terms all mean)
Where it will go and how strong it could get
Lala is tracking toward the west-northwest, which will bring its center near the Big Island on Saturday afternoon, then near or just south of the rest of the islands into Sunday. Always remember that the storm’s impacts do not diminish if Lala doesn’t make landfall.
Lala is expected to be a low-end Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Big Island this weekend. Some slowing of Lala’s forward motion is possible as the storm’s core interacts with the terrain of the Big Island. Some weakening could also occur during this time.
It will then depart west of the islands by Monday, and then could spend significant time over the central and western Pacific as either a hurricane or typhoon for over a week, far from land.
(MORE: Hawaii hurricanes aren’t as unusual as they sound)
Here are the weekend impacts
Flooding rain
Regardless of how strong Lala’s winds are, bands of heavy rain are likely over the island chain.
According to the NHC, 8 to 12 inches of rain is expected over Maui and the Big Island, with peak totals up to 25 inches on the Big Island through Sunday. Lower rainfall totals are likely throughout the rest of the state of Hawaii.
This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain.
Winds
Strong wind gusts capable of tree damage and power outages are possible over much of the island chain this weekend.
That’s particularly the case over higher terrain. Also, the threat of downed trees is higher given the heavy rainfall loosening the soil, making it easier for winds to topple trees.
If you’re in Hawaii this weekend, you should plan for power outages that could last hours or a few days and be alert of the danger of falling trees.
Winds will be highest on mountain peaks and between the passes.
Coastal flooding, storm surge
With Lala’s closest pass, some coastal/storm surge flooding is expected, especially along east or south-facing shores. Should peak surge occur at high tide, water could reach 1-3 feet above ground for the Big Island and 1-2 feet above ground for the rest of the state.
Extremely rough surf is expected between the islands and around the Big Island through the weekend.
If you’re in Hawaii, here’s what you should do
Those in Hawaii should pay close attention to the forecast and have a hurricane plan ready to go.
Those who live in hilly or mountainous terrain susceptible to flash flooding and landslides should also be prepared, just in case evacuations are needed. You don’t need a hurricane to trigger significant flash flooding, as was the case this past March.
Lala may not be the last storm to flirt with Hawaii this season. This strengthening El Niño and warmer-than-average ocean water both usually spell a more active central Pacific hurricane season. We already have two other areas with low chances of development being monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the East Pacific.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
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