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Good morning! Keep an eye on your velocity today. Inside:

Disappointment: Skenes’ shocking summer

On July 27, the Pirates held the final National League wild-card spot. Today, they’re 6.5 games back and more or less out of the race. One of the reasons for their collapse is a shocker.

Entering this year, Paul Skenes was as much of an ace as an ace can be. He pitched to ERAs of 1.96 and 1.97 in his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young and back-to-back starting nods in the All-Star Game. This year, Skenes’ ERA is 3.88, but that barely explains why his season has been so flummoxing.

Through nine starts, Skenes had a 1.98 ERA. In 16 starts since then, Skenes’ ERA is an even 5. Walks and homers are up, and efficiency is down. Skenes is getting through an average of 5 1/3 innings per start. Many of his peripheral stats still look excellent, and both the pitcher and team have espoused a process-trusting approach. “Got to remember what’s real,” the big man said in June, amid a streak of nine Pirates losses in his starts. His manager, Don Kelly, noted Skenes set the bar “so high” in his first two years.

Something’s off, though. It’s not just that the Pirates have posted a full 2015 Browns season (a 3-13 record) in Skenes’ last 16 starts. That could be noise. But is it? Skenes’ fastball velocity is plummeting to new lows pretty much all the time now, and Kelly just yanked him from a game after 65 pitches. Skenes has indicated that the velocity dip is intentional, part of a self-preservation plan, and that he could access more if he needed it. But his hardest pitches are also slower, suggesting that Skenes does not actually have it when he needs it. Coupled with worse command, he’s allowing more base runners and hard-hit balls than ever. The Pirates are concerned enough to be pushing back Skenes’ planned start today, to Wednesday. They say it’s about recovery and not an injury.

What’s happened? A few theories are bouncing around:

The World Baseball Classic messed with his offseason prep. Skenes was amped up for the WBC, a March event that changed his spring training buildup.
Something is wrong with his mechanics. Eno Sarris has a deep, deep dive on the current state of Skenes’ arsenal.
Skenes has gained weight. This one comes from longtime Pirates reporter John Perrotto, citing “multiple people” who believe Skenes looks less athletic and that added weight is messing with his delivery.
He’s injured, and the team hasn’t realized it. Fans are on edge about the Pirates’ medical staff. Prized rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin has had two long-term injury absences this season, each after remaining in the game or lineup immediately after his injury. Starter Mitch Keller was just ruled out for the season after looking like a shell of himself for months. There’s a trust gap here, at least.
Skenes has a cumulative case of “the Pirates.” The organization is a bottomless pit of failure under owner Bob Nutting and seventh-year general manager Ben Cherington. That includes team defense. Entering this weekend, fielders behind Skenes had posted a -8 defensive run value, second-worst in the majors. Remember Opening Day?

Whatever it is, things aren’t fine. I suspect Skenes will fix the problem next year as long as he’s healthy, because he’s such a great talent and still so early in his career. Whether the Pirates will achieve anything with him is a different question, though. The club will soon have missed the playoffs in each of Skenes’ three pre-arbitration seasons. A lockout beckons, and so does Skenes’ free agency in 2030.

News to Know

Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images

Douglass in turbo mode

Kate Douglass made a mockery of the women’s 50-meter freestyle world record at the Pan Pacific Championships yesterday — breaking it twice and lowering it from 23.55 to 23.19 after her finals win over fellow American and previous record-holder Gretchen Walsh. For more on the achievement — and her incredible versatility — go here. Meanwhile in the Euro championships, German 19-year-old Johannes Liebmann trimmed nearly four seconds off the men’s 1,500-meter freestyle record previously held by American Bobby Finke.

More News
Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart got lit up by Vikings safety Jay Ward and three plays later threw a touchdown. Dart said later he was “puzzled” at having been evaluated for a concussion.
Young Seahawks star Devon Witherspoon will be the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history under a four-year, $132 million extension. More here.
LeBron James launched a YouTube golf channel. First video: 96 minutes from a summer trip reuniting the 2016 champion Cavs on the Scottish links.
The Naismith Hall of Fame inducted eight individuals and the 1996 USA women’s Olympic gold medal team. Best moments from the speeches here.
The Blue Jays placed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the concussion IL after he took a knee to the head while sliding into third base against the Yankees on Friday. Not his year.
Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti said he’s happy to play nonconference games against Notre Dame — but he wants two home games to their one. 👀

📰 Find more news here 24/7.

Hi, My Name Is

Take … several bows, Joshua Báez 

There are sterling debuts, and then there’s what Cardinals prospect Joshua Báez did at Wrigley Field yesterday:

On the first MLB pitch he saw, Báez hit a 449-foot homer to center.
In his second at-bat, he homered to left.
Third at-bat: a homer to right

Not only is Báez the first player in MLB history with a three-homer debut, he accomplished the feat in his first three at-bats, hitting one out to every field. It was so utterly bonkers that after he lined out in his final at-bat, Báez, a Cardinal, got a standing ovation from a crowd full of Cubs fans.

Báez shared tears with his mother in the postgame scene. Make time for this dispatch from Patrick Mooney, which includes the astounding detail that back in June, Báez hit four homers on the anniversary of his father’s death.

Watch Guide

📺 FA Community Shield: Arsenal vs. Man City
10 a.m. ET on ESPN
The Premier League season is a week away. But first, a trophy. Fun backstory here on how the Community Shield became what it is today.

📺 Golf: FedEx St. Jude Championship
2 p.m. ET on CBS
The final round of the first playoff event of the PGA Tour season. Seventy players are in the field, and 50 advance to the BMW Championship next week.

📺 MLB: Mariners at Astros
7:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Major AL West implications in this one, and the pitching matchup is a good one: Bryan Woo against Hunter Brown.

Get tickets to games like this here.

Pulse Picks

Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; iStock

Most-shared stories on The Athletic last week:

3 small habits mental performance coaches think could have the biggest impact
Lakers sold to Bob Iger, Joshua Kushner 1 year after Mark Walter bought team
Meet Cooper Lutkenhaus, the track phenom who has gone pro while still in high school
Venomous snake hides in football player’s helmet during practice — while he wears it
“It was a bit surreal”: When World Cup star Olise joined a New York pick-up game … in socks

Everyone wants a recipe you can’t screw up. Take a bag of those small potatoes that cost like three bucks, season them with olive oil, salt and pepper and whatever else and let them go 3-4 minutes past the air fryer rec, basically 20-plus mins. Crispy outsides, mashed potato insides. I don’t even bother to cut them. Here’s an easy recipe. — Chris Sprow

The Braves signed some 2026 draft picks to $500 deals. Yes, $500. Jesús Cano explains the potentially controversial tactic.

If you’ve never played a Katamari video game before, the deal is that you use a sticky little ball to “roll up” increasingly large objects until your wad is so big it contains the literal cosmos. It’s whimsical and therapeutic — if at times frustrating — and the latest installment, Once Upon a Katamari, is available for most consoles (Switch 2 version out in October). — Matt Piper

🎥 Our Tifo Sports revisited the question of why MLB catchers are getting hit in the groin more often. Ouch.

Jason Lloyd argues it’s time for the NFL to scrap the coach-initiated challenge system and give the booth authority all game long.

Trader Joe’s Greek chickpeas with cumin and parsley might be its most underrated product. They’re a hack for making even the most basic savory meals feel more complete and elevated with zero extra effort (also convenient to pack on-the-go). — Torrey Hart

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald explaining their move for Terrion Arnold.

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