Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Ahead of the Sept. 10 release of its second-quarter financial results, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel reaffirmed her view of Groupe Dynamite Inc. (GRGD-T) as “an attractive SMID-cap name with sector-leading growth outlook, compelling optionality for FCF deployment/potential valuation expansion.”

In a client report released Thursday, she said Canadian consumer spending “remains resilient despite low, albeit recovering, confidence levels” and sees spending on clothing “holding up nicely.”

“GRGD delivered strong Q1/F25 KPIs [key performance indicators] and noted that momentum was continuing into Q2,” said Ms. Nattel. “Solid, modestly revised upward F25 guidance despite uncertainty around tariffs, reflective of an agile team and capital-light, high FCF generative business model. Tweaking forecasts and revising target multiples upward to reflect sector multiples expansion and the scarcity premium supported by GRGD’s share repurchases.”

For the quarter, the analyst is currently projecting adjusted diluted earnings per share of 43 cents, up 8 per cent from a year ago (40 cents) and falling in line with the Street’s expectation. That result comes off same-store sales growth of 9.7 per cent, which excees the high-end of the Montreal-based company’s revised annual guidance range 7.5-9.0 per cent. She said that result reflects a ” strong start to the year, with H1 up 14 per cent normalizing to 6 per cent in H2 due to uncertainty around tariffs and consumer sentiment/spending.”

“Tariff situation remains fluid, affecting GM [gross margins] , with SG&A leverage partially offsetting the impact,” she added. “Tariff-driven GM headwinds in H1, partially offset by SG&A leverage, expected to abate in H2 with more than 50-per-cent reduction of China receipts into the U.S. and with U.S. DC-related [distribution centre] efficiencies starting Q3. F25E EBITDA $350-million (up 15 per cent year-over-year), EBITDA margin 31.2 per cent toward the mid-point of guidance 30.3-32.3 per cent assumes status quo on tariffs. Guidance range +/- 100 bps around the mid-point reflects range of potential outcomes from improving/deteriorating trade backdrop.”

Maintaining her “outperform” rating for Groupe Dynamite shares, Ms. Nattel hiked her target by 59 per cent to a new Street-high of $43 from $27 after modest financial forecast changes and an updated to her valuation multiples. The average target is $30.57, according to LSEG data.

“Raising P/E and EV/ EBITDA target multiples by 9.0 times and 4.0 times to 25.0 times and 12.0 times, respectively, consistent with sector multiples expansion amidst investor confidence in retail companies to drive revenue and adapt to an uncertain economic environment and in line with current trading multiples,“ she explained. ”Strong and better-than-expected Q1 KPIs/results put GRGD in pole position to meet/exceed prior and modestly revised F25 guidance, supportive of our Outperform rating.”

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Scotia Capital analyst John Zamparo sees an opportunity to buy George Weston Ltd. (WN-T) for investors with “short-term time horizons or long-short/arbitrage mandates.”

“WN’s discount to its sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) has expanded to 17.4 per cent, more than one standard deviation above its mean,” he explained. “Historically, this has been an attractive threshold for a near-term reversion to the 14-per-cent average.

“SoTP track record bodes well. In the 3.5 years since WN has taken its current form (effectively a holdco with no bakery assets), the discount to its SoTP has reached 16.5 per cent only three times (prior to a few weeks ago). On two occasions, the reversion back to the 14-per-cent average took less than 2 months. In the other instance, the spread widened to an all-time high of more than 19 per cent before returning to the 14-per-cent average six months later. Note that an 19-per-cent discount represents two standard deviations.”

In a report released Thursday, Mr. Zamparo said he remains “constructive” on George Weston along with grocery peers Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) and Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T)

“We anticipate deteriorating macro data (a boon for grocers generally), a continued flight to quality and generally solid execution,” he said. “However, we concede that recent developments (more competitive environment, decelerating Buy Canadian movement, ongoing multiple expansion) create more risk to these names, above what we’d previously believed.”

“Risks increasing, especially given valuations. We’ve previously flagged the dual risks of sharply lower population growth against higher industry-wide square footage growth. We had expected this could impact stocks in H2/26, though it could be earlier than we’d anticipated. As well, a shorter timeline for Buy Canadian consumption patterns could pressure SSS estimates slightly, and we expect cost inflation (labour contracts, ecomm fees) to ramp up slightly. These challenges are manageable in our view and should still allow for double-digit EPS growth across the group; however, the risk is more pronounced given valuations well above historical averages (all NTM [next 12-month] P/E): L now trades at 23.4 times (five-year median 16.3 times), MRU at 19.6 times (five-year median 17 times) and EMP at 17 times (five-year median 13.0x). EMP’s lower valuation probably means it carries less downside risk. We forecast two-year EBIT CAGRs [compound annual growth rates] of 6.0 per cent at L, 7.1 per cent at MRU and 6.4 per cent at EMP.”

While lowering his first-quarter 2026 earnings per share forecast for Empire, Mr. Zamparo raised his target for its shares by $1 to $63 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $56.63.

“We’ve reduced our estimates and are exercising some caution in light of MRU’s results,” he said. “Our forecasts still assume healthy growth at 3.3-per-cent SSS [same-store sales growth] (up 4 per cent prior),” he explained. “We now expect lower tonnage growth, more modest performance from conventional, and higher cost inflation, partly from third-party ecomm. Note that stock-based comp remains a wildcard — this was an $50-million (or 8 per cent) drag on EMP’s EBITDA last quarter … Empire will report its FQ1 results on Thursday, September 11 prior to market open. EMP’s quarter ran from May 5 to Aug 2.”

Mr. Zamparo also adjusted his forecast for Loblaw to account for seasonality and the impact of an extra week in the quarter this year.

“We have made modest changes to our L forecasts, increasing our SG&A and interest expense for Q4/25 and reducing SG&A growth in Q3/25,” he said. “Our F25 and F26 EPS estimates are approximately 0.5 per cent lower vs. last published. Separately, Loblaw’s split has been highly successful so far — the stock is up 2.5 per cent in the two days since (up 200 basis points vs. the other grocers), contributing to a $1.7-billion increase in market value.”

His target for Loblaw shares rose by $4 to $65 after also accounting for a 4-for-1 share consolidation with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $61.20.

His George Weston target was up to $99 from $95 (split-adjusted) with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $101.29.

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Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li expects “another solid quarter” from Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T) when it releases its latest financial results on Aug. 27 before the bell, projecting same-store sales growth of 4.5 per cent and “stable” gross margins despite higher store operating expenses.

“We believe DOL’s continuing solid share price performance supports expectations for continued positive results,” he said. “While this might increase share price volatility near-term depending on results vs investors’ expectations, our positive view reflects investors’ preference for defence against economic uncertainty, DOL’s attractive long-term growth from international, solid balance sheet and FCF.”

For the second quarter of its current 2026 fiscal year, Mr. Li is projecting diluted earnings per share of $1.15, which is a penny below the Street’s expectation but a gain of 13 cents from the same period a year ago.

“A common theme in the quarter has been the resiliency of the Canadian consumer; we believe DOL has likely benefited,” he explained. “We forecast solid SSSG of 4.5 per cent (vs 4.9 per cent in 1Q and 4.7 per cent in 2Q FY25). Consolidated results will include 13 days of The Reject Shop (transaction closed on July 21). Excluding TRS, we forecast stable gross margin supported by scaling and lower logistics costs. We expect modest SG&A deleverage due to higher store expenses. We expect continuing solid earnings growth from Dollarcity of $32-milllion (41 per cent year-over-year). We have also revised our estimates to include TRS. Since TRS’s profitability has historically underperformed relative to its potential and given integration costs, we expect TRS to be earnings-neutral or modestly dilutive for the next several quarters.

“Back to Canada, our recent pricing survey shows competition remains rational, with DOL maintaining its compelling value proposition. On a price-per-unit basis, we estimate DOL is 30–50 per cent lower vs WMT and AMZN [Walmart Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.]. We believe DOL’s compelling value and breadth of product offering should support continuing solid traffic and moderate price increases. We estimate unit price inflation at 1.9 per cent in 2Q FY26, largely in line with trends in the past two quarters, partly driven by an increase in name-brand food consumables, possibly in relation to retaliatory tariffs.”

While he raised his revenue and EBITDA projections for both fiscal 2026 and 2027, Mr. Li reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $205 target for Dollarama shares. The average is currently $203.71.

“Near-term, we believe DOL’s premium valuation is supported by investors’ preference for defence and highly visible earnings growth. Over the longer term, increasing confidence in the growth and replicability of its international business model should support valuation,” he concluded.

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Emphasizing “historical cycles suggest significant upside remains”, Paradigm Capital analyst Lauren McConnell reaffirmed Sitka Gold Corp. (SIG-X) as one of her top picks for the second half of the year, calling the Vancouver-based miner “one of our favourite Explorer names.

“Despite a strong year-to-date performance (up 77 per cent), we believe investor awareness remains underappreciated — Sitka still holds significant upside,” she said.

In a report titled Rerate Still Ahead: Sitka’s District Story Is Just Beginning, Ms. McConnell said those gains thus far in 2025 should be seen as “more than a momentum story” and called it “s one of the most compelling exploration stories in the Yukon.” She pointed to the “rapid” evolution of its flagship RC Gold Project from “a one-deposit narrative into a camp-scale system” and touted the consistent success of its drilling, which she said is “highly unusual and points to a gold-endowed intrusive complex with district-scale fertility”

“It represents a deep-value, discovery-rich, scalable gold district in one of Canada’s top jurisdictions,” she explained. “With strong funding, visible gold across all targets and a valuation still lagging its peers, we firmly believe Sitka remains unmissed early-stage upside heading into H2/25. We maintain our conviction that it will continue to outperform as discovery and rerate catalysts unfold. In our view, Sitka is still early in a multi-year rerate cycle, and we continue to see it as one of the most compelling junior gold equities for H2/25.

“Sitka is currently trading at $63/oz based on its 2.8Moz resource. We believe that over the next year or so a 5Moz resource will be outlined and, based on the results to date, there will be a boost in the average grade. … We believe its location with year-round access, proximity to power, its exploration results to date indicating a highgrade corridor is unfolding, its exploration upside with numerous targets and its essentially untested 5-km corridor between Blackjack and Rhosgobel justify this valuation.

Maintaining her “speculative buy” recommendation for Sitka shares, Ms. McConnell raised her target to $1.70 from $1.20. The average is $1.48.

“Sitka Gold offers one of the most compelling exploration stories in the Yukon, with its flagship RC Gold Project already hosting 2.8Moz at Blackjack and Eiger and rapidly expanding through high-grade step-outs (e.g., 352.8m at 1.55 g/t including 108.9m at 3.27 g/t in Hole 75),” the analyst said. “With a fully funded 30,000 m drill program, multiple emerging discoveries such as Rhosgobel (166.0m at 1.14 g/t from surface), strong infrastructure advantages, and trading at a steep discount to peers on an EV/oz basis, we see significant re-rating potential.”

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National Bank Financial analyst John Shao thinks Vitalhub Corp.’s (VHI-T) recent bought deal offering reaffirms his view that it is “already a capital compounder with a self-sufficient M&A model if it stays with smaller deals.”

“When it comes to larger ones, we believe some external financing is needed,” he said after resuming coverage of the Toronto-based medical software company following the close of the offering, which landed gross proceeds of $74.75-milllion.

Mr. Shao added the deal “essentially bridges an important gap so that VitalHub could continue to execute its M&A playbook towards larger deals without too much capital constraint.”

“While we believe VitalHub’s bread and butter is still acquiring smaller players, it’s the larger ones that will transform its platform to become a true compounder regardless of deal size, while adding important capabilities to compete with larger players such as Cerner or Epic,” the analyst said.

“We are updating our model to reflect the increased share count and cash balance, and we estimate the Company to exit the upcoming quarter (Q3) with a cash balance of $120 million.”

Mr. Shao kept an “outperform” rating and $16 target. The average is currently $15.53.

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In other analyst actions:

* CIBC’s Anita Soni raised her G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) target to $24 from $22, keeping an “outperformer” rating. The average is $26.29.