AnalysisWhat the inflation rate could mean for interest rates and mortgagespublished at 08:27 BST

08:27 BST

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Among the bills many households have to contend with are mortgages and rent – so where do the latest inflation figures leave the Bank of
England?

Remember, interest rate changes take a while to impact
prices, with the Bank setting rates to influence future inflation.

And there is little in these figures to change its belief
that, in the medium term, inflation will come down to its 2% target.

Actually, the fact that the likes of food inflation has
remained muted may give it hope price pressures remain fairly contained.

Yesterday’s flat jobs and moderate wage growth figures also may lead the Bank to think
that firms have little opportunity to get away with hiking up prices.

That’s why some economists think rates may not rise this
year after all.

But there are still risks of a rise – if inflation does rise
by more than analysts expect later in the year, or if the war Iran drags on,
threatening more upheaval for energy costs.

A reminder: Interest rates are a key tool the Bank of England can use to keep inflation on track with its 2% inflation target. It can raise interest rates to reduce inflation, and lower them to stimulate growth.

"A line chart showing interest rates and CPI inflation in the UK, from January 2021 to June 2026. Interest rates were at 0.1% in January 2021. They were increased from late-2021, reaching a peak of 5.25% in August 2023.They were then lowered slightly to 5% in August 2024, to 4.75% in November, to 4.5% on 6 February 2025, to 4.25% on 8 May 2025, to 4% on 7 August, and to 3.75% on 18 December. At the Bank of England's latest meeting, rates were held at 3.75%. The inflation rate was 0.7% in the year to January 2021. It then rose to a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, before falling again to a low of 1.7% in September 2024 and then starting to rise again. In the year to March 2026, it was 3.3%, up from 3.0% the previous month. However, the picture has changed since then and in the year to July 2026 the inflation rate was 2.9%."