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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where today I’m wondering what we’re going to do without Zandvoort’s lovely banked corners. *Listens to earpiece.* I’m hearing the Madrid circuit has a very big one. All good. Bye, Zandvoort!
(As we’ll get into further below, we’re launching a Prime Tire mailbag, where no question is a stupid question. Curious or confused about anything in F1, send it in!)
I’m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let’s go.
I Am Iron Man Unlikely to Win: How Norris can seize the title
So, Lando Norris, reigning F1 champion and McNuggets fan, has won two straight races. He pulled off a winning move at the Dutch GP that has Mercedes fans a little rattled.
He’s 83 points back of leader Kimi Antonelli, with 11 races and one sprint remaining. We asked our WhatsApp group what’s on their minds this week, and so many of our followers asked the same question: Can Norris win the title this year? (Luke Smith wrote about this, too.)
So let’s crunch some math and throw some wet blankets.
There are 283 points left (11 GPs and the Singapore sprint). So Norris’ points ceiling is 442.
If Antonelli simply finishes second in every remaining race and second in the sprint, he ends with 447.
So Norris winning every remaining race is still not enough. Antonelli has to actively drop points — he can score at most 200 of the remaining 283 (71 percent) even against a flawless Norris.
What that looks like:
Norris needs a net swing of 7.6 points per round, which is roughly a win-while-Antonelli-finishes-second every single weekend, for 11 weekends.
I went forward in time, to view alternate futures. To see all possible outcomes of the coming conflict. All 14,000,605 of them … like Doctor Strange in “Avengers: Endgame.”
Norris wins between five and eight of the 11 races, with no non-scoring finishes.
Antonelli suffers between one and three DNFs or non-scores. This has to happen for Norris to have a chance.
Two structural factors work in Norris’ favor, though:
1. A Mercedes civil war. Russell is only 59 points back and just took a sprint win (and openly grumbled about team orders at Zandvoort). Every time Russell beats Antonelli, he caps Antonelli’s haul at 18, rather than 25. And Antonelli has already conceded that Mercedes is “clearly not the fastest car on the grid any more.” Norris needs that fight to stay live and messy.
2. Oscar Piastri is out of it with 104 points, so McLaren can throw everything behind one car without a title-costing internal argument. Mercedes and Ferrari both still have two drivers to balance
That said, yeah … don’t count on this endgame. But will Norris be a factor? Oh yes, as Luke points out here.
Hey, Wait A Minute: Are the Silver Arrows slowing down?
Madeline wrote yesterday that Mercedes finally looks beatable — and beyond that, it looks like it’s stalled.
Zandvoort looked like a Mercedes weekend. Russell took pole and won the sprint, and Antonelli led Norris for most of Sunday. Then the McLaren came around the outside at Turn 1 on Lap 54, and that was that — Norris won by 11.5 seconds, with Mercedes reduced to inverting its own drivers over the radio just to protect a double podium.
The simple fact is that McLaren’s development has caught up to Mercedes. Mercedes’ points haul has fallen steadily: 135 in the first three rounds, then 109 in the next three, then 89 and 92. McLaren has gone from 46 points in the first three to 84 over the most recent three. Ferrari has been pulling in the same level of points as Mercedes since the summer.
Toto Wolff was blunt about the cause: “We haven’t got the money to put developments on the car.”
Upgrades are coming, but not for another two or three races. The cushion may not feel this comfortable for much longer.
Head here for more on Mercedes’ predicament.
Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman
Yuki Tsunoda paused for a lengthy several seconds as he contemplated a question thrown to him in the post-race written media pen on Sunday.
Had his chances of returning to F1 in 2027 increased after his Dutch GP weekend performances?
He even turned to his press officer for help, before giving a light-hearted answer as he walked off to his next media engagement: “Call me, please.”
The Japanese driver has been on the sidelines this F1 season as a test and reserve driver for Red Bull. But for the Dutch GP weekend, he was tapped to replace Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls while Lawson filled in for an injured Isack Hadjar at Red Bull.
Since Tsunoda’s last grand prix in Abu Dhabi last season, he’s only driven four times, he said. But he hadn’t actually driven this car in these regulations in a live racing session until Friday.
He felt he “was able to progress faster than (he) expected” last weekend. What he found challenging, though, was learning about the different deployment buttons and procedures, as everything is completely different from the ground effect era.
Tsunoda’s main goal remains getting back into F1. The 2027 F1 driver lineups haven’t been finalized yet, but could Tsunoda’s name be in the mix?
He managed to stay close to Arvid Lindblad’s lap times, and Tsunoda finished the race 11th after qualifying 12th.
“I know what I can do, and I think I pretty much showed what I can do to most of the paddock,” he said. “With just one race and a couple of sessions, I was able to fight close to the points. Honestly, I think the outcome obviously (would have been) better scoring points, but I think I did as much as I can for now.”
Back to you, Patrick.
Wonder Aloud: Introducing the Prime Tire mailbag
*Infomercial voice*: Here at Prime Tire, we know F1 can be confusing.
We know you’ve nodded along while your friends argued about the cost cap and smiled politely through a stewards’ investigation, secretly wondering what a “lap-time delta” even is.
Friend, you are not alone. That’s why we’ve come up with the Prime Tire mailbag, a revolutionary new way to get answers without the shame or fear of being ostracized by fellow commenters.
No question too basic. No question too deep. Team orders got you flustered? SEND IT IN. Want to know what the little wing thingy on the front does? We won’t tell a soul you asked.
Don’t spend another Sunday pretending you know what ADUO means. Leave your question here. Alex and I are standing by. (Well, he’s on vacation right now. And I might be reading Wookiepedia or something. But usually, we’re standing by.)
Disclaimer: Prime Tire mailbag answers not guaranteed to make you sound smart at parties. Individual results may vary. Technical explanations are void where the regulations have already changed. Do not operate a race car while reading. Side effects may include correcting strangers on the internet, developing strong feelings about tire compounds and using the phrase “in the high-speed corners” in casual conversation. Not responsible for friendships ended or fantasy leagues lost. If you experience a stewards’ inquiry lasting more than four hours, that’s just normal. Questions submitted may be edited for length, clarity or because you spelled “Hülkenberg” without the umlaut.
Also, feel free to email us at PrimeTire@theathletic.com whenever.
Outside the Points
🥶 Wondering why the driver market seems frozen? Luke has all the details right here.
😤 Lewis Hamilton was pretty upset with his team during the race for not making Charles Leclerc get out of the way at Zandvoort. So mad that, in classic Hamilton classiness, he apologized yesterday on Instagram.
📲 The FIA has condemned online abuse of F1 stewards after the Dutch GP.
🇳🇱 Finally, wanted to share two farewell stories to the Dutch GP, which won’t return to the calendar next year. Here’s Madeline on why such a successful race is leaving, and Luke taking one last journey on the “Max Express” train.
📣 Want more? Good news. The Athletic’s F1 WhatsApp I mentioned earlier is entirely unhypothetical. Click here to subscribe!
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