Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Shanghai
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday’s UFC Shanghai card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake’s Takes.
UFC Shanghai Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 233-98-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Nurmagomedov
Fanduel Captain: Nurmagomedov
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 20-1 (2 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)Elite wrestler with relentless takedowns, suffocating control, and excellent scrambling abilityExtremely difficult to hit clean while seamlessly mixing his striking and grappling together
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 23-9-1 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Explosive striker with fast hands and legitimate knockout powerStrong and physical with solid takedown defense, but faces an entirely different level of wrestling here
DFS Perspective:
Song needs a knockout to pull off the upset, and I just don’t see it happening. Nurmagomedov should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, pile up takedowns and control Song for long stretches. Song’s power always gives him a chance, but outside of landing something big, I don’t see a clear path for him. Nurmagomedov should roll and profiles as one of the best DFS plays on the card.
UFC Shanghai pick: Nurmagomedov
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Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) v. Denise Gomes (12-3-0)
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 19-5 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Technical striker with fast combinations, excellent movement, and plenty of experience against the division’s bestDoes her best work when she can control the range and turn the fight into a technical striking battle
Height: 5’2″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-3 (7 KO/TKO)Aggressive striker with legitimate power and a willingness to push the pace from the opening bellContinues to improve and enters this matchup with the recent body of work to make her a dangerous underdog
DFS Perspective:
Yan has the experience and technical striking advantage, but I like what I’ve seen from Gomes recently. She’s the dog here, but her pressure and power give her a real opportunity to disrupt Yan’s rhythm and turn this into her type of fight. This is another step up, but I think Gomes is ready for it. I’ll take a shot on the dog to pull off the upset.
UFC Shanghai pick: Gomes
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Aoriqileng (26-13-0) v. Kai Asakura (22-6-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 26-13 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Aggressive pressure fighter with solid durability and a willingness to turn fights into high-volume exchangesExperienced and difficult to discourage, but can be hit clean when he gets overly aggressive moving forward
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 22-6 (14 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Explosive striker with fast hands, dangerous combinations, and legitimate knockout powerExcellent offensive instincts and is especially dangerous when opponents are willing to stand and exchange with him
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a good matchup for Asakura. Aoriqileng is tough and will bring pressure, but that should give Asakura plenty of opportunities to land his power shots. I expect Asakura’s speed and cleaner striking to separate the two, and the longer Aoriqileng is willing to exchange, the more likely a finish becomes. Asakura is one of the better finishing targets on the card.
UFC Shanghai pick: Asakura
Alex Perez (26-10-0) v. Sumudaerji (19-7-0)
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 65″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 26-10 (7 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)Well-rounded veteran with strong wrestling, dangerous submissions, and plenty of experience against high-level competitionNeeds to close distance consistently and turn this into a grappling fight to take away Sumudaerji’s advantages at range
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 19-7 (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Long, dangerous striker with fast hands and legitimate finishing powerOwns a significant size and reach advantage that should allow him to control distance and punish Perez on the way inside
DFS Perspective:
I like the size difference for Sumudaerji here. Perez has the wrestling to make things interesting, but he’s going to have to consistently close a massive reach disadvantage to get to it. I expect Sumudaerji to use his length, keep Perez at range and land the more damaging shots. I’ll side with Sumudaerji to get his hand raised.
UFC Shanghai pick: Sumudaerji
Levi Rodrigues Jr. (5-1-0) v. Ce Liu (3-1-0)
Height: 6’0″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 5-1 (5 KO/TKO)Powerful, athletic prospect with dangerous striking and legitimate finishing abilityStill relatively inexperienced but has shown plenty of upside when he can dictate the pace and fight at range
Height: 6’5″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 3-1 (3 KO/TKO)Young, aggressive striker with solid power and a willingness to exchangeExtremely inexperienced at the professional level and faces a difficult test against a more proven finisher
DFS Perspective:
This is a good fight to target for DFS because I don’t expect it to last very long. Both guys have power and are willing to exchange, making a knockout on either side very likely. I like the size and physicality from Liu to be the difference. I’ll side with Liu to get this done early and put up a big DFS score.
UFC Shanghai pick: Liu
Bilal Hasan (9-0-0) v. Nilson Rojas (9-0-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 9-0 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Undefeated, well-rounded prospect with dangerous finishing ability everywhere the fight goesPushes the action and has shown the ability to capitalize quickly when opponents give him an opening
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: N/A – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-0 (7 KO/TKO)Undefeated prospect with a balanced skill set and plenty of finishing upsideComfortable mixing his striking and grappling, making him difficult to prepare for
DFS Perspective:
Someone’s undefeated record has to go here, and this should be a competitive prospect matchup. Both guys have shown finishing ability and can get it done wherever the fight goes, but I slightly prefer Hasan’s overall game. I think his pressure and ability to create offense in multiple areas will be the difference. Slight lean Hasan in a fight with solid DFS upside.
UFC Shanghai pick: Hasan
Andre Lima (11-1-0) v. Namsrai Batbayar (10-1-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 Submission)Technical striker with sharp combinations, good power, and a composed approach on the feetRightfully favored with the cleaner UFC résumé and a well-rounded skill set that makes him difficult to exploit
Height: 5’4″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 10-1 (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)Aggressive, dangerous striker with solid power and a willingness to push the paceHas continued to impress and brings enough offensive upside to make him an intriguing underdog
DFS Perspective:
Lima is rightfully favored and absolutely has the skill set to win this fight, but I’m going to take a flier on Batbayar. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him, and I think he has enough power and aggression to make Lima uncomfortable. This isn’t a safe pick by any means, but at the underdog price, I’ll take my chances on Batbayar pulling off the upset.
UFC Shanghai pick: Lima
Rei Tsuruya (11-1-0) v. Kevin Borjas (11-5-0)
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 11-1 (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)Explosive grappler with strong takedowns, quick transitions, and dangerous submission abilityAt his best when he can consistently force grappling exchanges and use his athleticism to control the fight
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-5 (8 KO/TKO)Aggressive striker with legitimate power and a willingness to turn fights into high-paced exchangesMost dangerous when he can keep the fight standing and force opponents to trade with him
DFS Perspective:
Borjas has the power to make Tsuruya pay if this stays standing, but I like Tsuruya’s grappling advantage. He should be able to pressure, get inside, and consistently force Borjas into defensive wrestling. If Tsuruya gets his takedowns going early, the control and submission opportunities should follow. I like Tsuruya to get the win with solid DFS upside through his grappling.
UFC Shanghai pick: Tsuruya
Long Xiao (27-11-0) v. Francesco Nuzzi (11-2-0)
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 27-11 (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)Extremely experienced, well-rounded fighter who is comfortable mixing his striking and grapplingTough and durable with the ability to turn fights into gritty, high-paced battles
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-2 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Well-rounded prospect with a balanced attack and solid finishing abilityTechnical fighter who is comfortable working on the feet or turning to his grappling when needed
DFS Perspective:
Nuzzi has the cleaner record, but Xiao has a massive experience advantage and has seen just about everything at this point. I like Xiao’s ability to mix up his attack and make this a gritty fight where that experience matters. Nuzzi is talented enough to keep it competitive, but I lean Xiao to do enough to get his hand raised.
UFC Shanghai pick: Xiao
Jack Jenkins (14-4-0) v. Sean Woodson (13-2-1)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 14-4 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Well-rounded pressure fighter with damaging leg kicks, solid wrestling, and good physicalityDoes his best work when he can close distance and prevent longer opponents from settling into their striking rhythm
Height: 6’2″ – Reach: 78″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-2-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Extremely long striker with crisp boxing, excellent volume, and a massive frame for the divisionUses his range effectively and can frustrate opponents by constantly touching them from the outside
DFS Perspective:
The size difference is impossible to ignore here, and Jenkins will have to work hard just to consistently get inside. His wrestling and leg kicks give him paths to make this competitive, but I like Woodson’s length and volume to create problems over three rounds. If Woodson can keep Jenkins at the end of his punches, I expect him to pile up strikes and get the win. Lean Woodson, although the lack of consistent finishing upside keeps me from loving him for DFS.
UFC Shanghai pick: Woodson
Lawrence Lui (8-1-0) v. Hector Santiago (6-1-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 8-1 (4 KO/TKO)Aggressive finisher with solid power and the ability to put together combinations when moving forwardStill developing, but has shown enough versatility to be dangerous in multiple areas
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 6-1 (5 KO/TKO)Athletic prospect with legitimate power and a willingness to engage in aggressive exchangesDangerous early, but remains relatively inexperienced against higher-level competition
DFS Perspective:
There are still plenty of unknowns with both guys, but this feels like another fight worth targeting for its finishing potential. Both have shown power, and neither has much experience, which could lead to some wild exchanges. I slightly prefer Lui because he’s a little more proven at this point and has shown more ways to win. Lean Lui in a fight that could produce a strong DFS score if we get an early finish.
UFC Shanghai pick: Lui
Jingnan Xiong (19-3-0) v. Julia Polastri (14-6-0)
Height: 5’4″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 19-3 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Powerful, experienced striker with excellent boxing, pressure, and legitimate finishing abilityHas spent years competing at a championship level and is comfortable pushing a hard pace deep into fights
Height: 5’2″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 14-6 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and the ability to make fights competitive in multiple areasTough and experienced, but can struggle when opponents consistently pressure her and dictate the striking exchanges
DFS Perspective:
I like Xiong quite a bit here. She brings a level of experience, pressure, and power that I don’t think Polastri has dealt with often. Polastri has enough grappling to potentially create some problems, but if this stays standing for extended stretches, Xiong should have a clear advantage. I expect Xiong to control the striking and potentially find a finish as the damage starts to pile up.
UFC Shanghai pick: Xiong
Meng Ding (35-10-0) v. Cameron Nelson (7-1-0)
Height: 6’2″ – Reach: 73″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 35-10 (28 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Extremely experienced fighter with a massive advantage in professional cage timeComfortable in extended fights and has seen far more situations against a wide variety of opponents
Height: 6’1″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 7-1 (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Young prospect with good athleticism and plenty of upside despite limited professional experienceFaces a major jump in experience against an opponent who has nearly six times as many professional fights
DFS Perspective:
This is a massive experience gap, but that doesn’t automatically make Ding the better DFS side. Nelson is the younger, less proven fighter, but he has the athleticism to make this interesting and an opportunity to show he belongs at this level. I slightly prefer Ding because of the experience advantage, but there are enough unknowns here that I don’t have much interest in forcing either side into my DFS builds.
UFC Shanghai pick: Ding
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.