Welcome to The Athletic’s 2026 WNBA projections, where you’ll find every team’s odds of earning each playoff seed. Follow along with our bracket forecast, which will update live as games conclude.
Semifinals
Winner of 1 vs. 8
vs.
Winner of 4 vs. 5
Winner of 3 vs. 6
vs.
Winner of 2 vs. 7
Final
Winner of Semifinal 1
vs.
Winner of Semifinal 2
First round
Semifinal
Winner of 1 vs. 8
vs.
Winner of 4 vs. 5
Semifinal
Winner of 2 vs. 7
vs.
Winner of 3 vs. 6
Final
Winner of Semifinal 1
vs.
Winner of Semifinal 2
First round
If you’re just tuning in, the WNBA playoff field is set: the Lynx, Valkyries, Aces, Fever, Dream, Liberty, Wings and Mystics will be in the playoffs.
A team’s outlook depends on its current record and our expectations for its performance in remaining games. We use Elo ratings to assess team strength — a rating of 1500 is around league average. The table below shows estimates of possible playoff outcomes for each team.
If you’re a fan of a team outside the eight playoff spots, it’s time to start thinking about your team’s draft pick. Below, you’ll find our estimates for each lottery team earning each pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft. The first two slots are determined by a random draw among the non-playoff teams, with lottery odds determined based on two-year aggregate regular-season win percentage.
Methodology: We estimate each team’s chances by simulating the entire WNBA season 100,000 times and counting how often a team earns each seed, advances to each round of the playoffs and wins the championship.
We estimate each team’s probability of winning each game using team-level Elo ratings. Better teams are rated higher; worse teams are rated lower. After each game, the winning team’s Elo increases and the losing team’s Elo decreases (exactly how many Elo points change hands depends on several factors, including a team’s pre-game win probability and the game’s margin of victory). Player-level data, including rosters and injuries, do not factor into a team’s Elo rating.