Meanwhile, it’s snowing in Banff.

If you were hoping for some pleasant pumpkin-picking weather, you may be in luck. 

While early September may include some showers, the monthly forecast shows a warmer, drier trend, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Chloe Katsademas.

Above-average heat and parched conditions have dominated Metro Vancouver over the summer, although a couple of thunderstorms produced jaw-dropping precipitation and lightning. The most recent one broke the all-time regional record for strikes. 

“For September in general, we are diving into that typical fall weather,” Katsademas says. “Tonight into tomorrow, there is some rainfall and cooler weather for the start of the week.”

For now, the Metro Vancouver weather forecast for the Labour Day long weekend looks dry with a mix of sun and cloud. But conditions may continue to improve heading into next week as a weak ridge should establish itself over the Lower Mainland.

Still, some showers may prevail. 

“There’s going to be continued troughing throughout portions of September,” she adds, pointing at some minor systems bringing moisture to the region. That said, “Metro Vancouver should be relatively calm and comfortable through Sept. 12.”

Metro Vancouver weather forecast: Long-term fall outlook 

Warmer and drier conditions are generally expected for much of the fall.

“Our forecast is pushing toward a drier forecast for most of B.C.,” Katsademas says, adding that precipitation forecasts are difficult to gauge overall. 

But the signal for above-average temperatures is much better.

“Most of the country is expected to be warmer than average [this fall],” she explains. The temperature forecast shows about a 70 per cent probability of warmer temperatures over the next three months.

Meteorological fall kicks off Sept. 1 and runs through November, unlike astronomical fall, starting Sept. 21. 

It’s snowing in Banff. What does that mean for us?

Despite the Banff snowfall, don’t expect any frosted flakes for your weather breakfast (anytime soon). The wintry conditions might as well be a world away, as Vancouver’s short- to-long-range forecast doesn’t show anything like snowfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) ENSO Alert System Status says El Niño is present, with some media characterizing it as a “super” El Niño.

“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27,” according to an advisory.

In El Niño years, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific increase global average temperatures, and the ocean releases heat into the atmosphere. In opposing years, called La Niña, the ocean is colder than average in the central/eastern tropical Pacific, which takes heat from the atmosphere, leading to slightly cooler average temperatures worldwide.

The ocean can also transition to ENSO-neutral, meaning that neither of these weather phenomena is present.

In other parts of the world, these phenomena impact regions in the summer. But they don’t start affecting Metro Vancouver until the fall or even late December, depending on their strength.

La Niña years tend to produce cooler, wetter conditions in the Lower Mainland, more commonly when strong. But a stronger El Niño often has the opposite effect, producing drier, warmer conditions.

Interestingly, Katsademas expects “wetter than normal conditions” may prevail over the upcoming winter months.