Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 6, 2026 , 09:35 AM ET
• 4 min read
The Los Angeles Dodgers (66%) are a league-best 51-22 against below .500 teams, and their winning ways should continue vs. the Washington Nationals.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Freddie Freeman (5) singles in a run against the Detroit Tigers in the eighth inning at Comerica Park.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (66%) will look to complete a sweep over the Washington Nationals tonight when these teams face off at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif.
With their offense heating up against left-handed pitchers in particular, I’m backing the home team to finish the job with my Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 6.
Who will win Nationals vs Dodgers today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (48%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Andrew Alvarez is not pitching as well as the surface stats indicate. His 2.36 ERA over the last month comes attached with a 4.02 xFIP and 4.28 SIERA, red flags that suggest regression is coming.
The Los Angeles Dodgers sit fifth in xBA and seventh in xwOBA vs. lefties during that span. They are in good form and can bring Alvarez back to earth.
Justin Wrobleski has pitched to a 3.41 ERA at home. He should be adequate against a Washington Nationals lineup ranking 26th in xwOBA against southpaws the past 30 days.
Play to 49%.
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Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (49%)
Alvarez has posted a 4.41 xERA over 10 starts in hitter-friendly conditions this season, and favorable weather is projected tonight.
The Dodgers have hit lefties better than righties of late, and can look forward to facing a poor Nationals bullpen when Alvarez departs. Only Seattle’s bullpen owns a worse ERA than Washington’s (5.53) the last month.
Wrobleski pitches well in stretches but is vulnerable to power. He has allowed 1.45 HR/9 this year, and the Nationals have more pop with the recent return of James Wood.
Target the Over to 52%.
Nationals vs Dodgers home run prediction: James Wood (22%)
Wood hits for a ton of power against pitchers of both handedness. While he’s more productive facing righties, the power numbers vs. southpaws (17.3% barrel rate, 53.8% hard-hit rate) are still outstanding.
He has faced Wrobleski three times in his young career. He walked in one of them, and homered in the two at-bats.
Wood has four hits in three games since rejoining the lineup but is yet to leave the park. This is a good spot to change that.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 101-91, -11.03 units
Over/Under bets: 97-89-6, -4.32 units
Nationals vs Dodgers weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around 80 with slight winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
Moneyline: Nationals 35% | Dodgers 66%
Run line: Nationals +1.5 (53%) | Dodgers -1.5 (48%)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Nationals vs Dodgers trend
The Over is 4-0-1 in Washington’s last five games against a left-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info
Location
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026
First pitch
10:10 p.m. ET
TV
Nationals.TV, SNLA
Nationals starting pitcher
Andrew Alvarez
(2-6, 3.47 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher
Justin Wrobleski
(11-5, 3.65 ERA)
Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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