“In the spring of last year, I warned that America is trying to break us so they can own us. And I promised that that will never, ever happen,” Carney said in the video. He also maintained that the U.S. wanted to restrict Canada’s trade with other countries and its protection of French language and culture.
A workforce absorbing a direct hit
The human cost of the Canada–U.S. trade war is already registering on labour market dashboards before the full weight of September’s tariffs has been felt. Canada shed 42,000 jobs in August, according to Statistics Canada — the final employment report before the full force of 50 per cent tariffs from the U.S. hit the Canadian economy. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins in Montreal, said the situation could deteriorate further, warning that “the rise in trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. has opened up the possibility of another wave of layoffs in trade-exposed sectors.”
The new U.S. tariffs could cost about 87,000 jobs in Canada, with 52,000 directly affected and 35,000 indirectly, according to Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary in Calgary, Alberta, who published his analysis on The Hub. The hardest-hit provinces for job losses are Ontario, with an estimated 36,100 positions at risk, Quebec with 18,300, and British Columbia with 11,200. The industries set to have the highest number of job losses are machinery, electronics, plastics, and rubber.
For HR leaders already managing workforce risk across heavily tariffed Canadian industries the tariffs escalation sharpens an already difficult landscape. Ontario and Quebec — with effective tariff rates on exports to the U.S. reaching eight and 10 per cent, respectively, due to their concentration in autos and metals — face the steepest regional exposure, according to analysis by RBC Economics.
What the $7.5-billion support package means for HR
On August 25, the Canadian federal government announced a $7.5 billion package of new and enhanced measures to support workers and businesses impacted by the latest round of U.S. tariffs, building on nearly $25 billion in supports rolled out over the past 18 months. For people managers, the most operationally significant component is the new Workforce Retention and Retraining Program (WRRP).